SMRA: Potential for Post-Election Property Sales Recovery

20 Mei 2024 Valdy

SMRA’s net profit grew 62% yoy to IDR 441 billion in 3M24. This growth aligns with revenue growth to IDR 2.13 trillion in 3M24.

The increase in net gearing ratio in 3M24 was relatively limited.This
increase is not a significant problem, considering that SMRA’s equity value is enormous, and the net gearing ratio still below 50%.

SMRA is targeting total marketing sales in FY24F to reach IDR 5 trillion. This target is an increase of 11% compared to FY23F results.

Property Vs. Interest Rates. During the high interest rates in 2023, mortgage financing still recorded growth, although limited.

After the election is over, property sales have the potential to increase. During the election period, consumers tend to postpone purchasing a house; for example, in 2019, residential property sales experienced slower growth (+1.19% yoy) compared to 2018 growth of 13.95%yoy.

Using the discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate the fair value of SMRA to be 705 (10.80x expected P/E FY24F and 50% discount to NAV.

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