TLKM reported revenue growth of 3.71% YoY (1.45% QoQ) to IDR37.43 trillion in 1Q24, driven by an 11.3% YoY increase in the contribution of data, internet and IT services group to IDR22.15 trillion, despite ARPU declining 2.58% QoQ to IDR45.60k in 1Q24.

The increase in revenue was followed by an increase in operating expenses by 5.30% YoY, mainly due to an increase in interconnection costs by 22.80% YoY, and employee costs which grew by 10.40% YoY due to the distribution of THR and marketing expenses increased by 4.10% YoY due to promotions ahead of Fasting and Lebaran.

By 2024, Management expects revenue growth in the single-digit range while maintaining an EBITDA Margin of between 50-52% in 2024, supported by a surge in domestic connectivity demand.

We forecast FY24E revenue to increase to IDR154.82 trillion, driven by revenue growth of 5%-10% and operating cost efficiency down 1%-5%, with net profit growing 8.02% YoY, ARPU stable in the range of ~Rp46-Rp47k.

Using Discounted Free Cash Flow method with Required Return of 8.80% and Terminal Growth of 3.00% as terminal value. We assess that TLKM has an upside potential of 41.90% or IDR4,471 per share (Expected PBV at 2.5X and PE at 16.5x in FY24F), thus we give TLKM a BUY rating.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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