MYOR recorded revenue growth of 11.99% YoY to IDR25.63 trillion in 9M24. The revenue growth was driven by revenue in the Packaged Food Processing segment, which grew by 36.84% QoQ or 14% YoY to IDR15.5 trillion in 9M24. Meanwhile, Packaged Beverages Processing segment grew by 18.19% QoQ or 21.23% YoY to IDR12.37 trillion in 9M24. Rising raw material prices pressured MYOR's margin in 9M24. MYOR's cost of goods sold was recorded at IDR18.86 trillion in 9M24, up 16.47% YoY from IDR16.19 trillion in 9M23, which caused Gross Profit Margin (GPM) in 9M24 to depress 26.43% (vs. 29.26% in 9M23). The decline in GPM was due to the surge in Cocoa and Coffee prices. During 9M24, the average price of Cocoa increased by 155% YoY to US$7,853/ton (vs. US$3,085/ton in 9M23). Meanwhile, the average price of Coffee increased by 27.59% YoY to US$219/Lbs (vs. US$172/Lbs in 9M23) MYOR seeks to maintain performance by increasing sales. Faced with the challenges of rising prices of Cocoa and Coffee raw materials, MYOR continues to drive sales growth by adjusting product selling prices, innovating products, and expanding export reach to several new destination countries to potentially maintain future performance. MYOR recorded a stable net profit at IDR2 trillion in 9M24. On a quarterly basis, MYOR's net profit fell 50.47% QoQ to IDR308 billion in 3Q24 (vs. IDR606 billion in 2Q24). We assess MYOR's net profit in 3Q24 to be depressed due to the surge in Cocoa and Coffee commodity prices, reducing MYOR's GPM. MYOR's net profit in 9M24 was below our estimate as it was only 62.72% of our FY24F. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with Required Return of 7.12% and Terminal Growth of 4.55%, we estimate MYOR's fair value at IDR2,880 per share (Expected PE at 20.38x and EV/EBITDA at 11.86x in FY24). Therefore, we maintain a Buy rating on MYOR with lower target and potential upside of 11.62%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BBRI recorded a net profit of IDR45.36 trillion, growing 2.6% yoy in 9M24. This result grew in line with our FY24F estimate (73%). BBRI's Non-Performing Loan (NPL) is back to management's target. Gross NPL fell 170 bps yoy to 2.90% in 9M24 and lower than 2.95% in FY23. BBRI's credit grew 8.2% yoy to IDR1.353 trillion in 9M24. This growth was supported by corporate loans (+17% yoy) and consumer loans (+10% yoy), which contributed 18% and 15% to BBRI's revenue, respectively. Regarding customer deposits, the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) grew by 6.5% in 9M24. BBRI recorded total third-party funds of IDR1.362 trillion (+5.6% yoy) in 9M24. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.72% and Terminal Growth of 4.72%, we estimate BBRI's fair value at 5,925 (14.31x expected P/E FY24F). Considering BBRI's fair price, we maintain our buy rating for BBRI with a lower target than before and a potential upside of 25.79%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

31 Oktober 2024

Indeks-indeks utama Wall Street melemah di Rabu (30/10). ADP Nonfarm Employment Change mencapai 233 ribu di Oktober 2024, jauh lebih tinggi dari perkiraan di 110 ribu. Kondisi ini meningkatkan keraguan terhadap peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan pada FOMC pekan depan (9/11). Meski demikian, CME FedWatch Tools mencatat peluang pemangkasan 25 bps masih bertahan di atas 95% pada FOMC tersebut (30/10). Harga minyak catatkan rebound sekitar 2% di Rabu (30/10) dipicu rencana OPEC+ untuk menunda kenaikan volume produksi dari Desember 2024 ke Januari 2025. IHSG diperkirakan menemui bottom level dari minor bearish reversal yang tengah berlangsung di level 7500 (1/11). Pasar masih mengantisipasi pengumuman hasil review MSCI pada 7 November 2024. Realisasi kinerja keuangan sejumlah perusahaan bluechip, khususnya bank yang relatif solid di 9M24 nampaknya belum mampu meredam aksi jual. Top picks (31/10) : MEDC, MDKA, MYOR, ASII, dan PSAB. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

PWON's revenue increased by 4.74% year over year to IDR4.79 trillion in 9M24. This revenue was primarily driven by space rental revenue, which contributed 31.35% of total revenue in 9M24. PWON's diverse property business portfolio minimizes performance fluctuations due to high interest rates. PWON continues to expand its products and actively acquires its landbank. PWON targets revenue growth in marketing sales and NLA in FY24. PWON projects a 34% increase in shopping center NLA in 2023-2029, PWON has set a 15% yoy growth for marketing sales to IDR1.5 trillion in FY24. Using discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate PWON's fair value to be 595 (11.52x expected P/E FY24F and 68% discount to NAV). Considering PWON's fair price, we give PWON a buy rating with a potential upside of 24.09%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BTPS's net profit fell 24% yoy to IDR771 billion in 9M24. This performance is the impact of BTPS being more conservative in distributing financing in 2024 to maintain BTPS's asset quality. BTPS continues to make efforts to improve asset quality. Net Non-Performing Financing (NPF) of 0.0% in 9M24 is lower than 0.7% in 9M23 and 0.3% in FY23. Consumer empowerment to increase consumer loyalty.The number of customers is 265.7 thousand communities, with the number of active customers being 3.87 million in 9M24 compared to 258 thousand communities in 9M23. BTPS focuses on developing new features for Tepat mobile banking.BTPS will facilitate the receipt of cash waqf and develop the Cash Waqf Linked Deposit feature (so that waqf funds can be invested in sharia financial instruments such as deposits). Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.10% and Terminal Growth of 2.08%, we estimate BTPS' fair value at 1,315 (12.52x expected P/E). Considering BTPS' fair price and relative valuation below 1.82x –1 standard deviation of 5-year P/B, we give BTPS a buy rating with a potential upside of 21.70%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks Wall Street berakhir mixed di Selasa (29/10). Nasdaq (+0.78%) ditopang antisipasi kinerja keuangan 3Q24 perusahaan teknologi. U.S. JOLTs Job Openings turun ke 7.443 juta di September 2024 dari 7.861 juta di Agustus 2024. U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change diperkirakan turun ke 101 ribu di Oktober 2024 dari 143 ribu di September 2024. Data-data di atas menunjukan sektor tenaga kerja di AS tidak sekuat yang diperkirakan, sehingga menjaga peluang pemangkasan sukubunga di FOMC pekan depan (9/11). Dari dalam negeri, fokus masih akan tertuju pada pekan puncak rilis kinerja keuangan 3Q24 pada pekan ini. Pasar masih hasil major review IDX80, LQ45 dan IDX30 yang akan efektif pada 1 November 2024 dan antisipasi major review oleh MSCI pada 7 November 2024. IHSG masih rawan lanjutkan pelemahan, uji level psikologis 7600 (30/10). Top picks (30/10) : ISAT, JSMR, SMRA, PWON dan DOID. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

30 Oktober 2024

Net profit grew 3.5% yoy to Rp16.31 trillion in 9M24. This increase was in line with the increase in Interest income by 7.3% yoy to Rp48.84 trillion. Total loans reached IDR735 trillion in 9M24, growing 9.5% yoy and 1.1% qoq. Corporate loans grew 15.1% yoy to IDR409.2 trillion, contributing 56% of total loans in 9M24. Declining trend of Loan at Risk (LAR). BBNI targets LAR in 2024F to reach below 10%. BBNI's LAR was recorded at 11.8% ytd, down 360 bps Realization of the performance of a new growth engine for BBNI.Hibank targets the portion of MSME credit in 2024F to reach 45% from the previous 19% in FY23. Wondr by BNI and BNI direct drive BBNI CASA growth. As of 9M24, Wondr has acquired 225 thousand new users, with around 70% of BNI's retail savings coming from Wondr. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 11.05% and Terminal Growth of 4.65%, we estimate BBNI's fair value at 6,350 (19.24x expected P/E). Therefore, we maintain a buy rating with a lower fair value and potential upside of 15.42%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat di Senin (28/10). Aksi balasan Israel yang tidak menargetkan fasilitas produksi minyak dan nuklir Iran pada akhir pekan lalu. Harga brent melemah 6.09% ke US$81.42/barel, sementara harga crude melemah 6.13% ke US$67.38/barel di Senin (28/10). Pekan ini merupakan “minggu tenang” sebelum Pemilihan Umum Presiden-Wakil Presiden AS pada 5 November 2024 dan FOMC the Fed pada 7 November 2024. Diantara tanggal-tanggal penting di atas, MSCI dijadwalkan mengumumkan hasil major review pada 6 November 2024. Pasar di Eropa akan merespon pidato dari ECB Vice President, Luis de Guindos yang masih berlangsung hingga saat laporan ini disusun. IHSG memvalidasi pola minor bearish reversal apabila breaklow 7630 di Selasa (29/10). Pasar nampaknya masih menakar potensi dampak keputusan pailit salah satu emiten besar di Bursa Efek Indonesia terhadap kinerja emiten bank. Top picks (29/10) : ARTO, ADMR, INKP, TINS dan ERAA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -