Properties & Real Estate: Marketing Sales Resilience in 2024
Home Ownership Backlog in Indonesia, Ownership of livable houses in Indonesia is still relatively small. The ratio of habitable home ownership in Indonesia has only experienced limited growth over the last five years.
Restoring the quality of economic growth after the pandemic, Indonesia continues to show growth in its macroeconomic conditions. Indonesia's GDP has continued to increase in the last three years.
Marketing Sales Growth Trend, The development of infrastructure and government support to encourage stability and economic growth in Indonesia have increased marketing sales of property company yearly.
Stable Land Bank, The majority of property company have succeeded in maintaining the Land Bank optimally. This can be seen from the stable number of land banks in the last 5 years.
After the election is over, property sales have the potential to increase. Apart from that, based on PUPR ministry data, the ratio of livable house ownership in Indonesia will only be 57.31% in 2023.
Property Vs. Interest Rates. During the high interest rates in 2023, Home Ownership Credit (KPR) financing will still record growth, although limited.
VAT incentives. The Government will continue the VAT incentives program until 2024. This program is an incentive provided by the Government, which will cover 100% VAT on house purchases from November 2023 to June 2024 and house purchases from July–December 2024, covered by 50%.
The trend of increasing property prices and recurring income. The Residential Property Price Index (IHPR) released by Bank Indonesia in 1Q24 increased to 108.76, growing 1.89% yoy.
Most property company are still recording marketing sales growth, which aligns with each company's FY24F targets.
With the various catalysts above, as well as the performance of each issuer in the property sector, we make our top picks BSDE, with a potential fair value of IDR 1300, CTRA, with a potential fair value of IDR 1390 , and SMRA, with a potential fair value of IDR 705 .
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PT Esta Indonesia Tbk (NEST)
PT Esta Indonesia Tbk
Code : NEST
Sector : Consumer Non Cyclicals
Sub-Sector : Fish, Meat & Poultry
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PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM
Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif :
31 Juli 2024
Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum :
01 Agustus - 06 Agustus 2024
Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan :
06 Agustus 2024
Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham :
07 Agustus 2024
Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI :
8 Agustus 2024
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STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM
Sebanyak-banyaknya 822,500,000 saham biasa atas nama dengan nilai nominal Rp50 setiap saham atau sebanyak-banyaknya 20% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham.
Nilai Nominal :
Rp50 per lembar saham
Harga Penawaran :
Rp160 - Rp200 per lembar saham
Jumlah Penawaran Umum :
Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp164,500,000,000
Penjamin Emisi :
PT KGI Sekuritas
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IHSG rawan minor pullback
Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat pada perdagangan Senin (22/7).
Nvidia (+4.8%) memimpin technical rebound saham-saham big cap. tech. di Senin (22/7).
Pasar masih dipengaruhi oleh peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed di September 2024 hingga 93% (CME FedWatch Tools).
Joe Biden mengundurkan diri sebagai Calon Presiden dari Partai Demokrat dan merekomendasikan Kamala Haris untuk menggantikan posisinya tersebut.
PBOC memutuskan untuk memangkas 7-day RR Rate ke 1.7% yoy dari 1.8%.
Cadangan devisa Indonesia diperkirakan terpangkas di Juni 2024 seiring dengan upaya Pemerintah untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah.
Meski demikian, kondisi cadangan devisa diperkirakan masih jauh di atas rasio kecukupan minimal internasional di 3 bulan impor.
IHSG rawan minor pullback ke kisaran 7290 di Selasa (23/7).
Top picks (23/7) : BRIS, ADMR, ACES, ARTO dan HRUM.
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Pasar antisipasi data investasi riil 2Q24
Indeks-indeks global, di AS dan Eropa melemah di Jumat (19/7).
Terjadi global IT blackout yang sempat mengganggu operasional sejumlah bidang usaha dan pelayanan umum di Jumat (19/7).
Pelemahan indeks-indeks utama di Wall Street (19/7) juga masih dipicu oleh rotasi ke saham-saham berkapitalisasi kecil yang diyakini pasar memperoleh keuntungan signifikan dari pemangkasan sukubunga acuan oleh the Fed.
Pasar juga terpengaruh keputusan ECB untuk menahan sukubunga acuan (18/7) dan nada hawkish dari petinggi ECB terkait peluang pemangkasan lanjutan kedepan.
Dari dalam negeri, pasar menantikan data investasi riil oleh BKPM.
Pasar nampaknya sudah mengantisipasi kemungkinan perlambatan pertumbuhan investasi riil.
IHSG diperkirakan kembali fluktuatif di kisaran 7250-7330 di Senin (22/7).
Top picks : ADMR, AKRA, AVIA, BRIS, INDF, SIDO, dan INCO.
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Telco Infrastructure : Tower Infrastructure is Evolving to Support Next-Generation Connectivity
Interest rate hikes by the Fed and Bank Indonesia since 2022 increased interest costs for tower companies, expecting a rate cut in September 2024 that could reduce the company's interest expenses.
TOWR benefits more than MTEL as its interest-bearing debt/total liabilities ratio is lower, so the expected rate cut this year could boost its profit margins.
Indonesia's Digital Transformation 2030 aims to become the world's fifth-largest economy. Its focus is on developing and expanding digital infrastructure, particularly in remote areas.
Telecommunications companies are expanding into Eastern Indonesia with great potential and low penetration, with government support in constructing broadband networks.
We recommend overweight on the tower sector due to continued demand growth driven by government focus on infrastructure for Indonesia Emas 2045, with Top Picks TOWR (target price IDR850) and MTEL (target price IDR720), as well as upside risk from demand growth and realization of interest rate cAut.
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Saham bank berpotensi kembali menopang IHSG (19/7)
Mayoritas indeks-indeks Wall Street lanjutkan pelemahan di Kamis (18/7).
Pelemahan ini diperkirakan lebih sebagai profit taking normal.
Hal ini diindikasikan dari penguatan indeks saham berkapitalisasi kecil, Russell 2000 sampai dengan 3.5% di Kamis (18/7).
Pelemahan juga dialami oleh mayoritas indeks di Eropa (18/7).
Pelemahan ini dipicu oleh keputusan ECB menahan sukubunga acuan di 4.25% (18/7).
IHSG berpeluang uji resistance level 7350-7380 di Jumat (19/7).
Secara teknikal, IHSG Kembali menguat di Kamis (18/7) pasca coba tutup gap ke 7200 di Rabu (17/7).
Saham-saham bank, khususnya bank berkapitalisasi besar menjadi movers utama IHSG di Kamis (18/7) seiring stabilisasi nilai tukar Rupiah di Bawah Rp16,200/USD sampai Kamis (18/7) sore. Kondisi ini diperkirakan masih berlanjut di Jumat (19/7).
Top picks (19/7) : BBCA, ITMG, ADRO, UNTR dan PTBA.
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Valdy K.
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