ACES booked revenue growth of 12.75% YoY to IDR8.58 trillion in FY24. The growth was driven by a significant increase in lifestyle product sales by 17.99% YoY to IDR3.71 trillion, followed by home improvement product sales up by 9.67% YoY to IDR4.39 trillion in FY24. Meanwhile, toy product sales increased 3.34% YoY to IDR315 billion, and consignment sales increased 4.22% YoY to IDR156 billion in FY24. ACES booked Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) of 8.6% YoY in March 2025. This marked a recovery from the February 2025 SSSG realization, which contracted by 6.6% YoY. The improvement in SSSG in March 2025 was supported by increased demand during the Ramadhan period and ahead of Eid al-Fitr. ACES booked a net profit growth of 15.82% YoY to IDR885 billion in FY24. The growth in net profit was supported by ACES's double-digit revenue growth in FY24, which was able to cover the increase in operating expenses. Expansion will continue in 2025. The positive performance in FY24 strengthens ACES's commitment to expanding to more areas in Indonesia, both physically and through its omnichannel. ACES plans to expand to the easternmost region of Indonesia, with a target of opening 25-30 new stores in 2025. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.38% and Terminal Growth of 2.5%, we estimate ACES's fair value at IDR 685 per share. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating on ACES with a lower target and potential upside of 37.00%.

BBCA's net profit grew 9.8% YoY to IDR14.1 trillion in 3M25 (IDR56.6 trillion Annualized or 25% of our 2025F). A maintained Term Deposit Rate accompanied BBCA's Third Party Fund growth. Third Party Funds (TPF) grew 6.5% YoY to IDR1.2 trillion in 3M25. Increased third-party funds (TPF) also accompanied this credit growth. BBCA's TPF grew 2.9% YoY to IDR1.134 trillion in FY24, with the Current Account Saving Account (CASA) growing 4.4% YoY. BBCA's Term Deposit Rate fell 90 bps YoY to 3.15%. Quarterly, BBCA's TD rate also recorded a decline of 20 bps (3.13% in 4Q24). BBCA's loan growth grew 12.6% YoY to IDR941 trillion in 3M25 (vs industry 9.16%).Corporate loan supported this growth, which rose 13.9% YoY, followed by Consumer loan (+11.3% YoY). BBCA's asset quality remains healthy amid macroeconomic fluctuations. Gross NPL is above BBCA's gross NPL in the last four years (2%). Strong customer relationships are BBCA's competitive advantage. Customers increased by 7% YoY to 33 million in 3M25, with BCA's mobile banking transaction volume reaching 9.9 billion transactions (+19% YoY) in 3M25. We maintain our BUY recommendation for BBCA shares, with an estimated fair value of Rp11,400. This assessment is based on the Dividend Discount Model and relative valuation analysis, which is still below 4.37x average +1 St. Dev P/B 5 years. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

25 April 2025

Rally indeks-indeks Wall Street memasuki hari ketiga di Kamis (24/4). Meta catatkan kinerja 1Q25 yang lebih baik dari ekspektasi yang membangun ekspektasi kinerja serupa pada perusahaan-perusahaan teknologi lainnya. Menteri Perdagangan Tiongkok, He Yadong bahwa tidak ada negosiasi dan belum ada rencana negosiasi dengan AS. Harga emas catat rebound 1.4% ke US$3,334/troy oz di Kamis (24/4) dipicu aksi bargain hunting pasca pelemahan signfikan beberapa hari terakhir. Koreksi IHSG di Kamis (24/4) mendorong terbentuknya death cross di overbought area pada Stochastic RSI. Investor Asing lanjutkan net Sell, bahkan cenderung meningkat (Rp514 miliar) di Kamis (24/4). IHSG rawan pullback lanjutan ke kisaran 6575-6600 di Jumat (25/4). Dari dalam negeri, data atau sentimen domestik relatif minim pasca RDG BI (23/4). BI memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia akan cenderung berada di batas bawah proyeksi BI di 4.7%-5.5%. Top picks (25/4) : ASII, KLBF, CLEO, ISAT dan INDF.

Durable Goods Orders di AS naik 9.2% MoM menjadi $315.7 miliar di Maret 2025,mencatat kenaikan tiga bulan berturut-turut dan jauh melampaui ekspektasi pasar sebesar 2%. Kenaikan ini terutama didorong oleh pesanan pesawat komersial, dengan peralatan transportasi naik 27%, terutama pesawat komersil dan suku cadangnya sebesar 139%. Sementara itu, pesanan barang consumer discretionary di luar pesawat hanya naik tipis 0.1%, di bawah perkiraan 0.2%. Menteri Keuangan RI, Sri Mulyani Indrawati memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 2025 tetap mencapai sekitar 5%, meskipun Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memangkas proyeksi menjadi 4.7%. Proyeksi ini didukung oleh konsumsi rumah tangga yang kuat, belanja pemerintah, serta investasi yang meningkat, dengan realisasi investasi 1Q25 mencapai Rp465.2 triliun atau naik 15.9% YoY.

ANTM reported revenue of IDR25.99 trillion in 4Q24 (+29.88% QoQ; +156.09% YoY), bringing FY24 revenue to IDR69.19 trillion, up 68.57% YoY (vs. FY23: IDR41.05 trillion). This growth was mainly driven by robust growth in gold revenue, which jumped 120.34% YoY to IDR57.56 trillion (vs. FY23: IDR26.12 trillion). Gold sales surpassed management's guidance by 17.22% in FY24 (vs. 37.35 tons / 1,200,959 troy ounces). By the end of 2024, gold sales had reached 43.78 tons (1,407,431 troy ounces). ANTM's gold selling price significantly increased, climbing to IDR1.52 million per gram on December 25, 2024 (-1.25% MoM; +25.46% YoY). Despite the higher price, sales growth remained strong and rose by 67.5% YoY (vs. FY23: 26.13 tons / 840,067 troy ounces). This advancement was driven by increased domestic demand amid geopolitical tensions, which the company capitalized on by ramping up production and strengthening reserves through an annual gold purchase of 30 tons from Freeport's smelter starting in 2025. The nickel segment is expected to be optimized in FY25. Following the approval of the Work Plan and Budget for 2024, management aims to increase nickel ore production to 16.9 million wmt (+102.29% from 8.35 million wmt in FY24). Overcoming these regulatory challenges is anticipated to significantly enhance operational capacity, facilitating recovery in nickel-related revenue streams. Using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation method, with a required rate of return of 8.97% and a terminal growth rate of 1.15%, we estimate ANTM’s fair value at IDR2,400 per share (implying 13.37x / 1.58x expected P/E and P/BV). This positive outlook is fueled by rising domestic demand, increasing gold prices, and improved efficiency in reducing ferronickel production cash costs.

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI Index naik menjadi 50.7 di April 2025 dari 50.2 di Maret 2025, melampaui ekspektasi pasar sebesar 49.1 dan menandai ekspansi manufaktur selama empat bulan berturut-turut. Pertumbuhan produksi kembali positif meski tipis, didorong oleh kenaikan permintaan domestik, sementara pesanan ekspor turun tajam akibat tarif yang melemahkan permintaan luar negeri. Bank Indonesia kembali menahan suku bunga acuan di level 5.75% pada April 2025, sejalan dengan ekspektasi pasar dan upaya menjaga stabilitas harga dalam target inflasi 2.5% ±1% untuk 2025 dan 2026, serta mendukung stabilitas Rupiah di tengah ketidakpastian global. Selain itu, suku bunga deposit facility dan lending facility juga tetap dipertahankan masing-masing di 5.00% dan 6.50%.

24 April 2025

Nasdaq (+2.50%) memimpin penguatan indeks Wall Street lainnya (23/4). Pemerintah AS terus mengupayakan negosiasi dengan Tiongkok dalam beberapa hari terakhir ini. Presiden AS, Donald Trump mengklarifikasi bahwa tidak ada rencana pemecatan terhadap Kepala the Fed, Jerome Powell (23/4). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield akhirnya turun dari 4.4% ke 4.385% (-0.07%) di Rabu (23/4). Prospek negosiasi AS-Tiongkok juga menekan harga emas sebesar 3% ke US$3,281/troy oz di Rabu (23/4). BBCA membukukan pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 9.8% ke Rp14.1 triliun di 1Q25. BBRI dan BMRI juga dijadwalkan merilis kinerja keuangan 1Q25 pada pekan ini. Kinerja bank-bank berkapitalisasi besar diyakini masih relatif solid di 1Q25 meski dibayangi oleh kecenderungan peningkatan NPL dampak dari pelemahan nilai tukar Rupiah. Saham-saham bank diperkirakan kembali menjadi movers IHSG pada hari ini (24/4). Top picks (24/4) : BBCA, BBNI, AMRT, ACES dan CPIN.

Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors Meeting (BGM) held the BI rate at 5.75% on March 23, 2025. The Deposit Facility (DF) rate remains at 5.00%, and the Lending Facility (LF) rate stands at 6.50%. This decision ensures inflation remains controlled within the target range of 2.5±1% for 2025 and 2026.Bank Indonesia also focuses on maintaining a stable and market-friendly Rupiah exchange rate. It involves open market operations in the spot market, the domestic non-deliverable forward (DNDF) market, and Government Securities (SBN) purchases in the secondary market to safeguard financial market stability and ensure adequate banking liquidity. Furthermore, the decision seeks to enhance the effectiveness of pro-market policies in money and foreign exchange market transactions. It also encourages foreign capital inflows by maintaining an attractive interest rate structure and FX swap framework for investment in domestic financial assets. Additionally, Bank Indonesia is strengthening its Macroprudential Liquidity Policy (KLM) to boost credit and financing growth, particularly for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) and labor-intensive sectors. This initiative aims to create jobs and support sustainable economic growth.