3 Juli 2024

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat di Selasa (2/7). Powell menyatakan bahwa ada perkembangan positif pada inflasi di AS, tapi the Fed perlu “see more” sebelum memangkas sukubunga acuan. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 5 bps ke 4.428% merespon Pernyataan Powell di atas (2/7). Artinya, pernyataan Powell dinilai cenderung less-hawkish oleh pasar. Konsistensi penurunan inflasi ke kisaran target the Fed di 2% menjadi syarat utama pemangkasan. Inflasi inti di Euro Area bertahan di 2.9% yoy di Juni 2024. Kondisi ini dikhawatirkan mengganggu kecenderungan laju pelonggaran kebijakan moneter oleh ECB untuk di sisa 2024 ini. Sejumlah petinggi ECB menyatakan concern terhadap laju inflasi di Euro Area pasca pemangkasan sukubunga acuan oleh ECB. IHSG diperkirakan kembali uji pivot level 7100 di Rabu (3/7). Nampaknya intervensi BI dalam rangka stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah masih memerlukan waktu sebelum dapat terefleksi pada penguatan nilai tukar Rupiah. Top picks (3/7) : INTP, SMRA, ADMR, JSMR dan INDF. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Nasdaq (+0.83%) memimpin penguatan indeks-indeks Wall Street di Senin (1/7). U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI turun ke 48.5 di Juni 2024 dari 48.7 di Mei 2024. Pasar mengantisipasi pidato Kepala the Fed, Jerome Powell (3/7) sebelum libur memperingati Independence Day di 4 Juli 2024. CAC 40 Perancis menguat lebih dari 1% di Senin (1/7). National Rally, partai yang salah satunya menganut kebijakan anti imigrasi memenangkan pemilu putara pertama Perancis. Harga brent dan crude menguat sekitar 2% di Senin (1/7) dipicu oleh ekspektasi peningkatan konsumsi bahan bakar pada perayaan Independence Day di 4 Juli 2024. IHSG rawan profit taking atau pullback ke kisaran 7100 di Selasa (2/7). Inflasi Indonesia turun ke 2.51% yoy di Juni 2024 dari 2.84% yoy di Mei 2024. Data inflasi terbaru mengindikasikan bahwa daya beli masyarakat di Indonesia masih relatif solid, sementara harga cenderung terkendali. Top picks (28/6) : BBNI, BMRI, WIKA, ESSA dan MDKA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

2 Juli 2024

In 1Q24, MBMA's revenue fell 2.25% to US$444.23 mn, and net profit dropped 41.3% QoQ to US$3.67 million. This was due to significant declines in Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and Limonite Ore sales, impacted by adverse weather and equipment shortages. NPI production and sales also decreased, with an 8.6% QoQ drop in Average Selling Price (ASP) amid fluctuating nickel prices. High-Grade Nickel Matte (HGNM) sales increased 18.4% QoQ to US$196.94 mn, despite lower production and a 3.82% drop in ASP to US$13,673/tonne. The revenue growth was driven by reduced purchasing costs for Low-Grade Nickel Matte (LGNM) and a 7.30% QoQ decline in All-In-Sustaining Cost (AISC), leading to a significant rise in cash margin by 2,905% QoQ to US$511/tonne. MBMA is set for growth in 2024F with advancements in its High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) and Acid Iron Metal (AIM) projects. The AIM acid plant successfully delivered its first acid post-1Q24, with further developments expected by 2Q24 and 2H24. The PT ESG HPAL plant is targeting late 2024 for commissioning and subsequent nickel production. These projects are anticipated to enhance MBMA's market position, diversify and increase revenue, and support long-term growth. We assign a BUY rating to MBMA with a potential upside of 20.58% or IDR760 per share. This valuation is based on the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method with a WACC rate of 11.43% and terminal growth of 5%. The positive outlook is driven by growth projects, AIM plant production, and the planned HPAL plant commissioning. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

1 Juli 2024

Perlambatan kenaikan U.S. Personal Core Expenditure (PCE) Price index di Mei 2024 menjaga ekspektasi pasar terhadap pemangkasan the Fed Rate di FOMC September 2024. Peluang pemangkasan masih di atas 50% (CME FedWatch Tools). IHSG berpeluang lanjutkan penguatan uji resistance area 7130-7150 di awal pekan. Waspadai potensi pullback jelang akhir pekan bersamaan dengan jadwal pidato Kepala the Fed, Jerome Powell (3/7). Inflasi Indonesia diperkirakan turun ke 2.70% yoy di Juni 2024 dari 2.84% yoy di Mei 2024. Inflasi yang relatif stabil di level rendah memberikan ruang bagi BI untuk berbagai upaya stabilisasi nilai tukar Rupiah. Kondisi ini diharapkan dapat menjaga Rupiah di bawah Rp16,400/USD. Top picks : ADMR, ANTM, PTBA, UNVR, dan CTRA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat terbatas di Kamis (27/6) jelang rilis data U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. PCE Price Index diperkirakan turun 10 bps mom ke 2.6% yoy di Mei 2024. Memang masih jauh dari target 2% yoy, tapi setidaknya perlambatan inflasi dapat memperkuat peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan. Bank sentral Swedia memutuskan menahan sukubunga acuan di bulan ini, namun membuka peluang pemangkasan hinga 3 (tiga) kali di 2H2024. Hasil stress test bank di AS menunjukan bahwa sektor perbankan di AS mampu bertahan dalam kondisi "severe recession". Hal tersebut mendorong penguatan signifikan harga saham bank, khususnya bank-bank besar di IDX pada perdagangan Kamis (27/6). Meski demikian, sebaiknya jangan terlalu agresif dalam mengakumulasi saham bank saat ini karena terindikasi overbought. Top picks (28/6) : INDF, UNVR, CTRA, PGEO dan MYOR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

28 Juni 2024

TOWR recorded revenue up 6% YoY to IDR3.05 trillion in 1Q24, driven by the non-rental segment which jumped 7% YoY to IDR403 billion from FTTH services, with EBITDA of IDR2.4 trillion and net profit increasing 6% YoY to IDR797 billion. Despite stagnant tower and tenant growth, the company focuses on growth and development as the telecommunications industry shifts to the Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) segment, with demand increasing and connectivity reaching 13.534 million in 1Q24, up 22.40% YoY. Fiber to the Home (FTTH) demand jumped significantly, with 124,704 thousand home connections in 1Q24, growing 424.30% YoY, while Fiber to the Tower (FTTT) was supported by fiber optic length reaching 186,571 km in 1Q24, an increase of 14.90% YoY. We project TOWR's revenue in FY24 to be IDR3.4 trillion, reflecting a growth of 5.60% YoY. This growth is mainly driven by the non-rental segment Anticipating slower growth in the tower rental segment, TOWR focuses on expanding its fiber optic segment through the development of Fiber to the Tower (FTTT) and Fiber to the Home (FTTH), aiming to capitalize on the industry's shift towards Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) and projecting 7% YoY EBITDA growth to IDR10.44 trillion, supporting a net profit increase of IDR3.4 trillion in FY24. We assign a buy rating to TOWR with a potential upside of 26.20% or IDR860 per share. This valuation is based on Discounted Cash Flow with a WACC rate of 7.10% and terminal growth of 2.00%. TOWR has upside potential with an EV/EBITDA implication of 7.99x and EV/Tower of 2.48x for FY24F. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -