7 Juni 2024

6 June 2024

Nasdaq (+1.96%) memimpin penguatan mayoritas indeks Wall Street di Rabu (5/6). CME FedWatch Tools mencatat kenaikan signifikan pada peluang pemangkasan 25 bps di September 2024 menjadi 58.7%. Salah satu faktor yang memperbesar peluang di atas adalah rencana European ECB untuk memangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps pada pertemuan hari ini (6/6). Harga minyak mencatatkan technical rebound (5/6) pasca pelemahan lebih dari 4% dalam dua hari perdagangan sebelumnya. U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield melanjutkan pullback di Rabu (5/6) seiring dengan peningkatan ekspektasi pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed di September 2024. Saham-saham bluechip konvensional, terutama bank dapat diperhatikan di Kamis (6/6). BBCA, BBRI dan BBNI, termasuk TLKM dan ASII menjadi penopang IHSG dari potensi pelemahan lebih dalam di Rabu (5/6). IHSG tetap berpeluang rebound, kembali ke atas level psikologis 7000 di Kamis.

Net profit grew 56.23% yoy to IDR 1.5 trillion in 3M24. This growth is in line with an increase in revenue of 31.25% to IDR 3.8 trillion in 3M24 compared to the increase in Cost of Goods Sold, which only increased 9.56% yoy to IDR 1.1 trillion. Sustainable and integrated product portfolio. After the COVID-19 pandemic,people increasingly want housing that supports a healthy and environmentally friendly lifestyle (Asia Pacific 2023, JLL). BSD City is designated as a National Strategic Project (PSN). This project is being carried out with an area of around 59.6 hectares. BSDE marketing sales exceeded the marketing sales target in FY23. BSDE posted marketing sales of IDR 9.5 trillion (+8% yoy), which reflects 108% of the FY23 marketing sales target (IDR 8.8 trillion). Net profit is projected to return above IDR 2 trillion in FY24F. During the election period 3M24, BSDE recorded growth in marketing sales (3% yoy) and revenue (31% yoy). Using the discounted cash flow and revalued net asset value methods, we estimate the fair value of BSDE to be 1300 (8.64x expected P/E FY24F and 67% discount to NAV). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

5 Juni 2024

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat terbatas di Selasa (4/6). Pasar mengantisipasi data U.S. Non Farm Payrolls dan U.S. Unemployment Rate di akhir pekan nanti (7/6). Data tersebut akan menjadi faktor penting yang dipertimbangkan the Fed terkait timeframe pemangkasan sukubunga acuannya di 2024. Euforia terhadap perkiraan pemangkasan sukubunga acuan ECB di Kamis (6/6) mereda di Eropa. Pasar mulai menimbang-nimbang dampak dari perkiraan kenaikan inflasi Euro Area ke 2.6% yoy di Mei 2024 terhadap arah kebijakan ECB kedepannya pasca pemangkasan pada pekan ini. Harga brent dan crude masing-masing melemah 1.07% dan 1.31% di Selasa (4/6). Secara teknikal, IHSG berpotensi lanjutkan rebound untuk untuk menguji kembali level 7140-7150 di Rabu (5/6).

4 June 2024

Indeks-indeks Wall Street berakhir mixed di awal Juni (3/6). U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI turun ke 48.7 di Mei 2024 dari 49.2 di April 2024. Kondisi ini memicu kekhawatiran terhadap outlook pertumbuhan ekonomi AS, tapi di sisi lain diyakini memperbesar peluang pemangkasan sukubunga acuan the Fed dalam FOMC September 2024. ECB diperkirakan memangkas sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps dalam pertemuan Kamis (6/6). OPEC+ mempertimbangkan untuk melakukan pengurangan terhadap pemangkasan produksi dari posisi saat ini sebesar 2.2 juta barel per hari mulai Oktober 2024. Hal ini memicu pelemahan harga minyak hingga 3% di Senin (3/6). Perhatikan potensi fluktuasi lanjutan IHSG di kisaran pivot 7050-7075 di Selasa (4/6). Inflasi total Indonesia turun ke 2.84% yoy di Mei 2024 dari 3% yoy di April 2024 dan indeks manufaktur Indonesia turun ke 52.1 di Mei 2024 dari 52.9 di April 2024. Kedua data tersebut mengindikasikan perlambatan aktivitas ekonomi di Mei 2024.

ICBP recorded net revenue of IDR19.92 trillion during 3M24, a limited growth of 4.07%. Although ICBP’s revenue growth was limited, ICBP was able to record an Operating Profit Margin of 24.69% during 3M24. Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) revenue was overshadowed by high inflation rate in some of its operating regions. During 2023, PCL recorded revenue of IDR16.4 trillion, growing 10.92% YoY. This growth was lower than the sales growth in 2022, which reached 19.79% YoY. However, ICBP could still post a solid Operating Profit Margin in 2023 at 21.19%. Better than the Operating Profit Margin in 2022, which amounted to 20.65%. The acquisition of Pinehill Company Ltd. (PCL) in 2020 also contributed to ICBP’s revenue growth. Based on data from the World Instant Noodles Association (WINA), demand for instant noodles in PCL's operating regions tends to increase from 2019-2023 such as Nigeria (CAGR +9.19%), Egypt (CAGR +30.99%), Turkey (CAGR +29.08%), and Kenya (CAGR +21.67%). We believe it will positively impact for ICBP's revenue due to PCL's strong market share in the region. Profit margins have the potential to stabilize in line with the softening of raw material prices. If CPO and Wheat prices stabilize more in the future, it will potentially boost the company's profit margin stability. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.49% and Terminal Growth of 2%, we estimate ICBP’s fair value at IDR12,504 per share (Expected PE at 14.91x and EV/EBITDA at 9.28x in FY24). We give ICBP a Buy rating with a potential upside of 28.25%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

3 Juni 2024