6 September 2024

S&P 500 (-0.30%) mencatatkan pelemahan di hari ketiga berturut-turut di Kamis (5/9). Sentimen negatif berasal dari penambahan private payrolls di AS sebesar 99,000 pekerja di Agustus 2024, turun dari 111,000 di Juli 2024. Pasar mengantisipasi data ADP Employment Report dan weekly initial jobless claims di akhir pekan ini (6/9). Rally pelemahan harga minyak bumi tertahan di Kamis (5/9) menyusul penundaan rencana OPEC+ untuk menaikan volume produksi selama 2 bulan. Pasar menantikan rilis data cadangan devisa Indonesia per akhir Agustus 2024. Cadangan devisa diperkirakan meningkat, sejalan dengan perbaikan kinerja ekspor dan penguatan nilai tukar Rupiah di Agustus 2024. Secara teknikal, upper-shadow panjang pada IHSG dan pergerakan sideways pada MACD mengindikasikan potensi fase konsolidasi. IHSG diperkirakan fluktuatif pada rentang 7650-7700 di perdagangan Jumat (6/9). Top picks (5/9) : MYOR, ISAT, SMRA, MAPA, ACES, dan BBNI. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

MTEL booked revenue of IDR2.24 trillion in 2Q24, growing by +1.72% QoQ and +8.18% YoY, reflecting 46% of the 2024E target. The tower leasing segment remains the key driver, with revenue up by 7.20% YoY to IDR3.70 trillion in 1H24 MTEL's fiber segment experienced impressive growth of 104.90% YoY, reaching IDR175 billion, with the addition of 5,081 km of optical fiber in 1H24. EBITDA increased by 10.59% YoY to IDR1.85 trillion, with a margin of 82.67%. Net profit grew by 4.19% YoY to IDR543 billion. MTEL's introduction of Flying Tower Station (FTS) aims to enhance connectivity in remote areas, with commercialization expected by 2026. This technology is projected to be a new revenue stream between 2026-2031. MTEL's innovative, sustainable, and aesthetic tower designs in the IKN area, where 19 sites have been completed as of 1H24, with a target of 82 towers by year-end. We maintain our BUY recommendation for MTEL with a target price of IDR720 per share, reflecting a potential upside of 10.42%. This valuation is based on a blended valuation between DCF and Multiple Valuation with 5% terminal growth. This potential upside implies a PER and EV/EBITDA valuation of 24.70x and 9.80x, respectively, for FY24F. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Nasdaq (-0.30%) dan S&P 500 (-0.16%) lanjutkan pelemahan di Rabu (4/9). U.S. Justice Department menyampaikan subpoena kepada NVIDIA dan beberapa chipmakers terkait penyidikan atas indikasi pelanggaran antitrust law. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI naik ke 47.2 di Agustus 2024 dari 46.8 di Juli 204. Mayoritas indeks di Eropa ditutup melemah di Rabu (4/9). Pasar menantikan indeks sektor jasa di Euro Area, Jerman dan Inggris di Rabu (5/9). Harga brent melemah 1.42% ke US$72.70/barel, sementara harga crude melemah 1.62% ke US$69.20/barel di Rabu (4/9). Surplus NPI diperkirakan masih berlanjut di Agustus 2024 karena penurunan nilai impor yang lebih dalam dari penurunan nilai ekspor. Penurunan impor disebabkan oleh kecenderungan penurunan harga minyak di pekan terakhir Agustus 2024. Sementara penurunan ekspor sejalan dengan pelemahan indeks manufaktur secara global di Agustus 2024. Top picks (5/9) : MYOR, ISAT, SMRA, MAPA, ACES, dan BBNI. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

5 September 2024

Term Deposit (TD) rates of banks in coverage are relatively well maintained. Loans and third-party funds growth in Indonesia have been on an upward trend since 2023. Non-Performing Loans (NPL) fell 172 bps ytd to 2.23% in June. This achievement occurred despite several global central banks implementing tight monetary policies. Rupiah depreciation can be a risk for banking. However, along with the optimism of the Fed Funds Rate cut in September, the rupiah has appreciated again so that the rupiah only depreciated less than 1% to IDR15,520/USD on September 2. The 6M24 performance of banks in our coverage mostly reached 50% of our FY24 estimate. BI Rate has the potential to fall in The BI Rate has the potential to decrease in the fourth quarter of 2024. Indonesia's Trade Balance Surplus Maintained in the Last Three Years From 2024 until July 2024, Indonesia's Trade Balance (BOP) has always posted a surplus. In July 2024, the BOP posted a surplus of US$0.47 billion. Rupiah Exchange Rate Appreciation Has Potential to Continue Until End of 2024. Indonesian Banking Net Interest Margin Remains High Amid High Interest Rates. Return on Equity (ROE) growth in the last 5 years remains high. Banking capital adequacy in Indonesia. With the various catalysts above, as well as the performance of each issuer in the banking sector, we make our top picks BMRI with a potential fair value of IDR 8,171 > BBCA with a potential fair value of IDR 10,950 > BBRI with a potential fair value of IDR 6,165 > BBNI with a potential fair value of IDR 6,800 > BRIS with a potential fair value of IDR 2,970 > BBTN with a potential fair value of IDR 1,807. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -  

4 September 2024

Indeks-indeks Wall Street mengalami sell-off di Selasa (3/9). S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final melemah ke 47.9 di Agustus 2024 dari 49.6 di Juli 2024, sementara ISM Manufacturing PMI berada di 47.2 di Agustus 2024, lebih rendah dari perkiraan di 47.5 untuk periode tersebut. Inflasi yang persisten ditengah perlambatan aktivitas ekonomi di Eropa menjadi dilema bagi ECB dan bank sentral besar lain di Eropa untuk lanjutkan pemangkasan sukubunga acuan di sisa 2024. Harga minyak bumi melemah lebih dari 4% di Selasa (3/9). Pelemahan dipicu potensi resolusi konflik di Libya dan rencana OPEC+ untuk menaikan volume produksi minyak di Oktober 2024. IHSG rawan mengalami pullback lanjutan ke kisaran support 7550 di Rabu (4/9). Nilai tukar Rupiah diperkirakan bertahan di kisaran Rp15,500/USD untuk beberapa waktu kedepan. Top picks (3/9) : PWON, CTRA, MDKA, JPFA, dan MAIN. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

3 September 2024

Wall Street libur di Senin (2/9) memperingati Labor Day. Indeks-indeks di Eropa ditutup beragam di Senin (2/9). Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI bertahan di 45.8% di Agustus 2024. U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI naik ke 52.5 di Agustus 2024 dari 52.1 di Juli 2024. Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI turun ke 42.4 di Agustus dari 43.2 di Juli 2024. OPEC+ berencana menambah volume produksi sebesar 180 ribu barel per hari mulai Oktober 2024. Inflasi Indonesia turun tipis ke 2.12% yoy di Agustus 2024 dari 2.13% yoy di Juli 2024. Indeks manufaktur Indonesia turun ke 48.9 di Agustus 2024 dari 49.3 di Juli 2024. Perlu diwaspadai potensi pullback IHSG dengan support level terdekat saat ini di 7650. Top picks (3/9) : AUTO, AALI, EMTK, BBYB dan AGRO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -