CTRA: The geographic diversification of CTRA’s portfolio remains a competitive advantage
Net profit grew 15% YoY to IDR2.3 trillion in FY24. Revenue rose 21% YoY to IDR11.2 trillion in FY24. The revenue growth was driven by a 25% YoY growth in the property development segment and +7% YoY in the recurring segment in FY24.
A geographically diversified product portfolio is the advantage of CTRA's residential segment. Until FY24, CTRA had 89 projects in 34 cities in Indonesia. In FY24, Greater Jakarta contributed 40% of marketing sales, followed by Greater Surabaya 23% and Sumatra 19%. With this diversification, CTRA can minimize concentration risk.
CTRA's marketing sales grew 8% YoY to IDR11 trillion in FY24. This achievement continues the upward trend in 2023, where CTRA recorded the highest marketing sales at IDR10.2 trillion. CTRA's average marketing sales growth has reached 14% in the last three years.
We estimate CTRA's net profit can grow 9% YoY in FY25F. CTRA's solid bottom line performance is supported by VAT incentives borne by the government, loan-tovalue discounts, and relatively stable Non-Performing Loan conditions in the property sector.
We maintain our buy rating for CTRA, which has an estimated fair value of 1320 (previously 1570) and a potential upside of 61.96%. The fair value is obtained using the Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods and reflects 10.77x expected P/E FY25F and a 55% discount to NAV.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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