TBIG reported a modest 1.63% QoQ revenue increase in 4Q24 to IDR 1.74 trillion, buoyed by fiber (+4.00% QoQ) and tower leasing (+1.42% QoQ). Meanwhile, MTEL’s 1Q25 revenue contracted by 9.15% QoQ to IDR 2.26 trillion, reflecting pressures in both tower leasing and fiber segments. TOWR’s revenue stayed largely flat (-0.25% QoQ) in 4Q24 amid cautious tenant additions.

Operational performance highlights MTEL’s tenant base expanding 4.24% YoY and tower count growing 3.82% YoY, maintaining a steady tenancy ratio at 1.52x. TBIG’s tenancy ratio edged down to 1.79x on moderate tenant growth, while TOWR’s ratio slipped to 1.64x despite strong tenant (+6.91% YoY) and fiber asset (+19.34% YoY) additions.

TBIG’s EBITDA margin dipped to 84.22%, MTEL held firm around 83%, and TOWR’s margin narrowed to 83.80%. Net profits declined for TBIG (-12.73% YoY) and MTEL (-7.93% QoQ), but TOWR bucked the trend with a 7.25% YoY net profit rise.

Merger risks loom large with an estimated 14,000–20,000 overlapping sites from the EXCL-FREN consolidation, disproportionately impacting TOWR and TBIG due to their greater revenue exposure (~30% and ~18%, respectively) compared to MTEL (~12%). MTEL’s diversified portfolio—with over half its towers outside Java—affords greater resilience and flexibility to mitigate site rationalization risks.

Fiber growth shines as a beacon of opportunity, with FY24 segment revenue up 16.2% YoY and a forecasted CAGR of 11.78% through 2029. MTEL’s robust balance sheet positions it well for continued fiber expansion, while TOWR aims to capitalize on its extensive 212,000 km fiber network despite capex challenges.

We maintain a Neutral rating on the tower sector. Our top pick remains MTEL (HOLD, TP: 700) for its resilience and balanced portfolio. TOWR (HOLD, TP: 650) follows, leveraging its fiber assets to offset tower segment pressures. TBIG (HOLD, TP: 2200) faces downside risks from consolidation but could stabilize by optimizing non-tower segments.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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