US Deflation of 0.1% MoM driven by a declining Energy Prices Index in March 2025

11 Apr 2025 Valdy

U.S. recorded a deflation of 0.1% MoM in March 2025, down from an inflation rate of 0.2% MoM in February 2025, contrary to market expectations of a 0.1% MoM inflation. It was influenced by a 2.4% decrease in the energy index in March 2025, which saw an offset between a decline in the gasoline index and an increase in the electricity and natural gas indices. Meanwhile, the food index rose to 0.5% MoM in March 2025. Additionally, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, decreased by 10 basis points to 0.1% MoM in March 2025 from 0.2% MoM in February 2025 (Figure 1). It was due to a 1.4% MoM decline in the transportation services index.