U.S. PMI Mixed Signals: Weak Demand Drives Manufacturing Decline, Backlog Orders Bolster Services Strength

U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged down slightly to 52.2 in November 2025 from 52.5 in October 2025, exceeding the market consensus of 51.9 and signaling continued expansion in the manufacturing sector (Figure 1). This expansion was driven by higher output and a partial rebound in new orders since August 2025. However, demand growth slowed from October due to international market uncertainty stemming from tariff policies, reportedly leading to a fifth consecutive month of declining export orders since July 2025. Input cost inflation pressures on raw materials remained elevated, prompting manufacturers to pass on price increases to customers, albeit at a moderated pace amid weak demand and intense competition, heightening the risk of unplanned inventory accumulation…

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