Consumer confidence trend weakened in the past year. As of September 2025, the CCI was recorded at level 115.0, a decrease from level 117.2 in August 2025, and became the lowest level since April 2022.

Domestic inflation increased in September 2025. Domestic inflation increased to 2.65% YoY in September 2025. This condition indicates that prices of goods and services tend to increase, but remain controlled. However, the government has officially launched the economic stimulus package for 2025, which can potentially maintain people’s purchasing power.

Raw material price movements tend to be mixed during 9M25. On a quarterly basis, several raw materials, such as cocoa and wheat, showed a decreasing trend, and coffee prices were relatively stable in 3Q25, so the profitability of F&B issuers can potentially recover in 2H25, although the recovery is relatively limited due to stronger CPO prices.

Live bird and DOC prices recovery continues until September 2025. The recovery in live bird and DOC prices is aligned with the culling program implemented by the government from early April to July 2025. We assess that if the recovery in live birds and DOC prices continues, then the profitability of poultry issuers in both segments has the potential to increase.

With the various catalysts above, we maintain our overweight rating on the F&B and Poultry sectors. Our top picks are INDF, with an estimated fair value of IDR9,650, and JPFA, with an estimated fair value of IDR2,720.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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