At the start of Donald Trump’s second presidency, trade wars re-emerged as a key global issue.

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy took effect on February 1, 2025, introducing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports.

The swift in the global trade policies has increased the economic uncertainty.

The Fed still sees the potential for two rate cuts this year, although it will continue to monitor the impact of tariffs. The Fed has signaled concerns about slowing economic growth and faster inflation.

Geopolitical tensions have escalated in several regions.

Commodity prices have become increasingly sensitive to global developments. Commodity price movements have shown divergence, with gold experiencing the highest gains, while coal prices have seen the sharpest declines.Crude prices rise to US$80–US$100/barrel if the Israel-Iran war continues and escalates.

Exchange rates are expected to stabilize. After a period of volatility driven by the tariff war, exchange rate movements are projected to become more stable as trade tensions ease and potential monetary policy loosening comes into play.

IHSG targeted 7,692 in 2025: Considering the various opportunities and challenges faced in 2025.

Sectoral Coverage: Banking, Cement, Construction, CPO, Metals & Mining, Food & Beverage, Poultry, Retailers, Properties & Real estate, Telecommunication, and Tower.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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