U.S. Economy Stalls: 1Q25 GDP Contracts Amid Slowing Inflation and Uncertain Policy

02 Mei 2025 Valdy

U.S. economic growth contracted by 0.30% QoQ in the first estimate for 1Q25, down from 2.40% in 4Q24, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and fell short of market expectations for a 0.3% QoQ expansion. This contraction aligns with a slowdown in the headline inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, which eased to 2.30% YoY in March 2025 from 2.70% YoY in February 2025. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in April 2025 is expected by market consensus to remain stable at 4.2%, after a slight increase from 4.2% in February 2025 to 4.2% in March 2025, with the official release scheduled for today (5/2).