PGAS’s revenue grew 5.37% YoY to US$1,937 million in 6M25. This increase was supported by the downstream segment, particularly gas trading, which contributed US$1,248 million or 67.87% of total revenue. However, PGAS’s net profit decreased 8.07% YoY to US$214 million in 6M25. The decline in profit was driven by a 23.02% YoY increase in natural gas purchase costs.

National natural gas production is projected to reach 6,910 MMSCFD by the end of 2025, or 122.7% of the 2025 state budget target. This increase in production is supported by domestic demand, which is expected to continue growing each year.

As the market leader in Indonesia’s downstream gas sector, PGAS continues to expand its new business ventures and low-carbon energy initiatives. PGAS holds more than 91.24% of the national gas sales market share, supported by an extensive gas pipeline network spanning over 33.36 thousand km.

PGAS has an integrated business chain with a diversified portfolio. The company’s operations span from upstream to downstream, well-integrated through its subsidiaries and owned entities.

Using the DCF method with a required return of 7.78% and a terminal growth rate of 1.43%, we estimate PGAS’s fair value at Rp1,860 per share (PE25E of 9.13x and PBV25E of 0.72x, as well as PE26E of 8.56x and PBV26E of 0.70x). Considering the fair value and relative valuation, which remains below the 3-year average PBV of 0.86x, we assign a Buy rating for PGAS with an upside potential of 11.04%.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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