MDKA’s revenue declined amidst the transition and optimization of its nickel business. MDKA’s revenue decrease 23% YoY to US$1.29 billion in 9M25 from US$1.67 billion in 9M24.

MDKA’s EBITDA Increase 33% YoY to US$295 million in 9M25. This increase was in line with a 33% YoY reduction in cost of revenue to US$950 million, driven by a 43% YoY decrease in processing costs due to the halt of HGNM production.

From the bottom line, MDKA’s net profit loss is starting to improve. MDKA suffered a loss of US$35 million in 9M25, down from US$67 million in 9M24.

MDKA continues to focus on production optimization and cost efficiency. This is evidenced by a significant increase in nickel production targets, with limonite ore increasing 48% YoY and saprolite increasing 135% YoY.

MDKA continues to strengthen its mineral business portfolio through the development of gold and copper projects, which will drive the company’s future growth. MDKA also continues to optimize nickel downstreaming through MBMA.

Using the Sum of the Parts method, we estimate MDKA’s fair value at Rp3,140/share (14.5x Expected EV/EBITDA FY25F, Terminal Growth of 1.46%, and Required Return of 9.35%), higher than the previous Rp2,510/share. Considering MDKA’s fair price and performance, we give MDKA a buy rating with a potential upside of 43.38%.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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