Food & Beverage: Potential Increase in Public Consumption
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate continues to decline. The CPI inflation rate in Indonesia stood at 2.13% YoY in July 2024. We estimate that the sluggish CPI inflation rate can potentially increase public consumption, which can positively correlate with issuers' financial performance in the consumer sector.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is maintained at an optimistic level. We assess that consumer confidence maintained above the 120 level indicates that Indonesia's economic conditions are still quite strong, which has the potential to keep people's purchasing power solid and support future economic growth.
The Retail Sales Index (RSI) experienced an increase in June 2024. The Retail Sales Index (RSI) was recorded at 229.0 in June 2024. We expect the Retail Sales Index (RSI) to be maintained in line with several National Holidays in 2H24 (Independence Day of the Republic of Indonesia and HBKN Christmas 2024), which have the potential to increase public consumption.
The flagship program of President and Vice President-elect Prabowo-Gibran, namely Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG), has been officially included in the Draft State Budget and Expenditure (RAPBN) for Fiscal Year 2025 with a budget allocation of Rp71 trillion or equivalent to 0.29% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The program has the potential to positively impact several sectors, one of which is the consumer sector (for processed foods such as spices and their supporters), so it can boost the company's financial performance.
Prices of key raw materials flatten. During the first semester of 2024, the average price of Wheat was around US$596/Bu, a significant decline of 13.6% YoY. meanwhile, the average CPO price was around MYR4,014/ton, an increase of around 3% YoY. We assess that if both commodity prices tend to stabilize in the future, it will potentially increase the profitability of consumer sector issuers.
Consumer sector issuers in our coverage still recorded sales growth in the first half of 2024. MYOR recorded sales growth of 9.48% YoY to IDR16.2 trillion, ICBP recorded sales growth of 7.20%
YoY to Rp36.9 trillion, and INDF recorded sales growth of 2.16% YoY to IDR57.29 trillion.
We recommend Overweight in the consumer sector with various catalysts above. Our top picks are MYOR, with estimated fair value of IDR2,950 > ICBP, with estimated fair value of IDR12,504 > and INDF, with estimated fair value of IDR7,842.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Properties & Real Estate: Marketing Sales Resilience in 2024
Home Ownership Backlog in Indonesia, Ownership of livable houses in Indonesia is still relatively small. The ratio of habitable home ownership in Indonesia has only experienced limited growth over the last five years.
Restoring the quality of economic growth after the pandemic, Indonesia continues to show growth in its macroeconomic conditions. Indonesia's GDP has continued to increase in the last three years.
Marketing Sales Growth Trend, The development of infrastructure and government support to encourage stability and economic growth in Indonesia have increased marketing sales of property company yearly.
Stable Land Bank, The majority of property company have succeeded in maintaining the Land Bank optimally. This can be seen from the stable number of land banks in the last 5 years.
After the election is over, property sales have the potential to increase. Apart from that, based on PUPR ministry data, the ratio of livable house ownership in Indonesia will only be 57.31% in 2023.
Property Vs. Interest Rates. During the high interest rates in 2023, Home Ownership Credit (KPR) financing will still record growth, although limited.
VAT incentives. The Government will continue the VAT incentives program until 2024. This program is an incentive provided by the Government, which will cover 100% VAT on house purchases from November 2023 to June 2024 and house purchases from July–December 2024, covered by 50%.
The trend of increasing property prices and recurring income. The Residential Property Price Index (IHPR) released by Bank Indonesia in 1Q24 increased to 108.76, growing 1.89% yoy.
Most property company are still recording marketing sales growth, which aligns with each company's FY24F targets.
With the various catalysts above, as well as the performance of each issuer in the property sector, we make our top picks BSDE, with a potential fair value of IDR 1300, CTRA, with a potential fair value of IDR 1390 , and SMRA, with a potential fair value of IDR 705 .
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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Telco Infrastructure : Tower Infrastructure is Evolving to Support Next-Generation Connectivity
Interest rate hikes by the Fed and Bank Indonesia since 2022 increased interest costs for tower companies, expecting a rate cut in September 2024 that could reduce the company's interest expenses.
TOWR benefits more than MTEL as its interest-bearing debt/total liabilities ratio is lower, so the expected rate cut this year could boost its profit margins.
Indonesia's Digital Transformation 2030 aims to become the world's fifth-largest economy. Its focus is on developing and expanding digital infrastructure, particularly in remote areas.
Telecommunications companies are expanding into Eastern Indonesia with great potential and low penetration, with government support in constructing broadband networks.
We recommend overweight on the tower sector due to continued demand growth driven by government focus on infrastructure for Indonesia Emas 2045, with Top Picks TOWR (target price IDR850) and MTEL (target price IDR720), as well as upside risk from demand growth and realization of interest rate cAut.
By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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IT Services & Consulting: Unveiling Indonesia’s Burgeoning Tech Ecosystem
Geopolitical tensions raise the risk of cyberattacks, and the average cost per breach continues to rise, highlighting the ongoing need for robust cybersecurity measures for businesses.
51% of companies increase cybersecurity costs and investments due to the escalating cost of data breaches and cyberattacks.
Indonesia faces a critical challenge in data protection; this vulnerability underscores the need for robust cybersecurity through IT Consultants & Services companies.
Indonesia's tech sector receives support from the government: Law No. 27 of 2022 on Personal Data Protection and Circular Letter No. 29/SEOJK.03/2022 related to robust data security protocols for individuals and financial institutions.
There is no sector rating yet, but we foresee Indonesia's tech sub-sector IT Consultant & Services' prosperous future, propelled by a potent combination of supportive regulations, surging demand for security solutions, and the transformative potential of emerging technologies.
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