INDF : Agribusiness Segment Potentially Drives Revenue in FY25

21 Aug 2025 Company Update
INDF booked revenue growth of 4.4% YoY to IDR59.84 trillion in 6M25. This growth was driven by increased sales in almost all business segments, except for the Bogasari segment, which decreased by 2.4% YoY to IDR15.04 trillion in 6M25. The agribusiness segment experienced the highest sales increase of 33.44% YoY to IDR9.36 trillion in 6M25, aligned with the rise in average Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices, particularly during the January-March 2025 period.INDF's operating expenses increased by 1.11% YoY to IDR 7.94 trillion in 6M25. This increase was aligned with the increase in sales and distribution expenses by 3.55% YoY to IDR6.06 trillion, and other income decreased by 23% YoY to IDR563 billion in 6M25, due to losses from changes in the fair value of biological assets of the subsidiary, PT Salim Invomas Pratama Tbk (SIMP), of IDR183 billion. This condition caused INDF's operating profit to decrease by 0.5% YoY to IDR11.69 trillion in 6M25.INDF's net profit increased by 38.7% YoY to IDR8.1 trillion in 6M25. This increase was mainly due to a decrease in financial expenses to IDR2.21 trillion in 6M25, aligned with a decrease in foreign exchange losses from financing activities to IDR231 billion in 6M25 (vs. IDR3.09 trillion in 6M25).We estimate that INDF's net profit can potentially grow 14.4% YoY to IDR14.96 trillion in FY25F. This estimate is based on relatively stable operating performance and a stable rupiah exchange rate against the US$, which can potentially reduce financial expenses. In addition, strategic initiatives across various business segments are expected to drive growth from both the top line and bottom line in the future.>We maintain our Buy recommendation for INDF with a higher target price of IDR9,650 per share (previous IDR9,000). This recommendation is based on calculations using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 7.37% and a Terminal Growth of 2.95%.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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MIDI : Operational Efficiency Potentially Drives Net Profit in FY25

11 Aug 2025 Company Update
MIDI booked revenue growth of 5.99% YoY to IDR10.37 trillion in 6M25. This growth was driven by an increase in sales of the fresh food segment by 30.34% YoY to IDR1.74 trillion and the non-food segment by 15.92% YoY to IDR2.82 trillion in 6M25. Meanwhile, the food segment decreased by 3.51% YoY to IDR5.78 trillion in 6M25.MIDI's operating expenses decreased by 1.65% YoY to IDR1.91 trillion in 6M25. This decrease was mainly due to a decrease in selling and distribution expenses by 1.53% YoY to IDR1.8 trillion in 6M25. On a quarterly basis, MIDI's operating expenses decreased significantly by 22.62% QoQ to IDR833 billion in 2Q25.MIDI's net profit grew 28.7% YoY to IDR391 billion in 6M25. This growth was in line with operational efficiency in 2Q25 and a decrease in income tax expenses to IDR58 billion in 6M25 (vs. IDR98 billion in 6M24). We estimate that MIDI's net profit can potentially grow by 52% YoY to IDR725 billion in FY25F. This is based on the estimated continued operational efficiency that can drive net profit growth in FY25.MIDI is targeting the opening of 200 new stores in FY25 (Alfamidi & Alfa Super). We assess that MIDI's commitment to continuing its store expansion by focusing on potential outside Java could be the primary driver of MIDI's future revenue growth. In addition, sales through online channels such as MIDI Kriing and various e-commerce platforms continue to show positive trends.We give a Buy recommendation for MIDI by increasing the target price of MIDI shares from IDR428 to IDR530 per share. This recommendation is based on a calculation using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.83% and a Terminal Growth of 3.54%.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BBRI : Performance below Expectation, Maintain buy with lower target price

01 Aug 2025 Company Update
BBRI booked net profit decline of 11.5% YoY to Rp26.3 trillion in 6M25. Interest Income grew 2.6% YoY, followed by Net Interest Income, which increased 2.8% YoY to Rp73.3 trillion in 6M25.Although it was followed by an increase in provision expense of 25.8% YoY in 6M25, thus suppressing BBRI's net profit growth. BBRI's provision expense has increased in the last two years (3M25: 14.6% YoY, 2024: +28.6% YoY, 2023: +10% YoY).Current Account Savings Account (CASA) grew 10.6% YoY to Rp877 trillion in 6M25.In terms of liquidity, the Loan to Deposit Ratio decreased from 86.59% in 6M24 to 84.97% in 6M25. Despite the tightening of liquidity in the banking industry, BBRI was able to maintain its liquidity in line with BBRI's efforts to maintain asset quality.Gross Non-Performing Loans (NPL) increased 20 bps QoQ (0 bps YoY) to 3.2% in 6M25. The gross NPL remains above the management target of <3% for FY25F.Therefore, BBRI increased its provision expense by 25.8% YoY to IDR 23.3 trillion in 6M25. However, BBRI's NPL coverage ratio has decreased and remained lower than in the last three years.Moderate loan growth to improve asset quality. BBRI's total loans grew 6% YoY to Rp1,417 trillion in 6M25.We estimate BBRI can book interest income growth of around 2.5% for FY25F, but with a 3% decrease in net profit.Based on BBRI's performance, using the Dividend Discount Model, we maintain our BUY rating for BBRI with a lower target price of Rp4,705/share (12.19x expected P/E) from the previous Rp5,325/share and a relative valuation below 2.27x the 5-year average P/E with a potential upside of 26.82%.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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BTPS : Potential for Sustainable Asset Quality Improvement

30 Jul 2025 Company Update
BTPS's net profit grew 17% YoY to IDR 644 billion in 6M25. This growth was in line with improvements in BTPS's asset quality, resulting in a 43% YoY decrease in provision expenses to IDR 418 billion in 6M25.BTPS's total financing declined more modestly in 6M25. BTPS financing decreased 3% YoY to IDR 10.14 trillion in 6M25, compared to -11% YoY in FY24 and -6% YoY in 3M25.The decline in Financing loss provision (CKPN) continued in 6M25. CKPN decreased 43% YoY to IDR 418 billion in 6M25. BTPS began to reduce CKPN to IDR 1.3 trillion in FY24 from IDR 1.8 trillion in FY23.In addition, the CKPN value in 6M25 was also lower than the CKPN in the last five years (IDR 1.3 trillion, IDR 945 billion, IDR 728 billion, and IDR 850 billion).The decrease in the CKPN value was in line with management's optimism regarding the quality of BTPS assets. Despite the CKPN reduction, Loan provision coverage continued to increase, with Loan provision coverage of 248% in 6M25 being higher than 206% in FY24.Consumer empowerment to increase consumer loyalty. BTPS has an empowerment program called bestee" to increase the capacity of its customers as entrepreneurs by providing them access to knowledge or assistance from contributors through an integrated digital platform.We assign a Hold rating to BTPS, with a higher estimated fair price of 1,490 (10.45x expected P/E) and potential upside of 4.20%. This assessment is based on the Dividend Discount Model and relative valuation analysis, which remains below the 5-year average of -1 St. Dev P/B of 1.66x.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -
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TAPG : Sustaining Strong Yields, Powering Future Growth

08 Jul 2025 Company Update
We expect TAPG booked revenue of IDR 10.5 trillion in FY25F (+9.0% YoY), supported by higher sales volumes of CPO (~680 thousand tons, +6.9% YoY) and PKO (~27 thousand tons, +9.2% YoY). The strong growth was driven by robust domestic demand following the B40 biodiesel mandate, as well as solid PKO demand as a cocoa butter substitute. CPO remains the main revenue contributor (~87%), followed by palm kernel (~9%) and PKO (~4%).In terms of profitability, TAPG is projected to record a net profit of IDR 3.4 trillion (+10.9% YoY), with a solid net profit margin at 32.8%. This strong performance is underpinned by manageable cost of goods sold, stable fertilizer costs (~IDR 802 billion, +2.0% YoY), and controlled external FFB purchases (~17–18% of total processed volume). Meanwhile, lower interest expenses (estimated at IDR 53 billion, –16.6% YoY) further strengthen the company’s capital structure and support profitability.TAPG also maintains strong operational fundamentals, with a blended plantation age profile of 14.2 years and ~82% of planted area in the productive phase (7–20 years old). The nucleus estate yield remains solid at ~23 tons/ha, supporting steady production and healthy margins. Total FFB processed is projected to rise to ~3.96 million tons (+2.7% YoY) in FY25F, with internal supply remaining dominant (~82–83%).On the cash flow side, robust free cash flow (7Y CAGR: 24.7%) enables an aggressive dividend policy, reflected in a sharply higher total dividend of IDR 3.3 trillion in FY24 (DPR: 106.3%). The DPS increased significantly to IDR 167 (yield: ~25%), while the cash balance remains healthy at around IDR 1 trillion by end-2024. This supports future expansion while maintaining attractive shareholder returns.We initiate coverage on TAPG with a BUY recommendation and a target price of IDR 1,300 per share, reflecting FY25F valuations of 7.5x PER and 2.2x PBV, using a DCF approach (WACC: 16.4%; terminal growth: 2%). We like TAPG for its productive plantation profile, solid balance sheet, and strong cash generation, which provide flexibility for measured long-term growth.Key risks include lower-than-expected FFB yield, CPO price volatility, and unfavorable regulatory changes. Overall, TAPG is well-positioned to maintain strong operational performance and deliver sustainable value going forward.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On-
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MDKA : Built to Scale, Engineered for Profit

13 Jun 2025 Company Update
MDKA recorded FY24 revenue of US$2.24 billion, representing a 31.2% YoY increase compared to US$1.71 billion in FY23. This growth was primarily driven by the nickel segment, which contributed 82.4% of total revenue through PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk (MBMA), with revenue rising 38.9% YoY to US$1.84 billion (vs. FY23: US$1.33 billion).Operational efficiency at the three RKEF smelters (CSID, BSID, and ZHN) successfully reduced the cash cost of Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) by 6.86% QoQ to US$10,037/ton in 4Q24 (vs. 3Q24: US$10,776/ton).Gold production in 4Q24 reached 35.82 koz, (+17.37% QoQ; +21.41% YoY), in line with an increase in the average selling price (ASP) of 11.06% QoQ to US$2,672/oz (vs. 3Q24: US$2,406/oz).Looking ahead, gold production is projected to continue increasing through the Pani Gold Project, which is targeted to reach peak annual production of 500,000 ounces.Management Guidance for FY25 : the gold segment is projected to produce 100,000–110,000 oz per year with a competitive cash cost of US$1,100–1,200/oz, copper production is targeted at 11,000–13,000 tons, with a significant expected reduction in cash cost to US$1.60/lb. Meanwhile, the nickel segment will maximise margins by producing Nickel Pig Iron (NPI), targeting 80,000–87,000 tons per year with a controlled cash cost below US$11,000/ton.Using a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, with a required rate of return of 9.20% and a terminal growth rate of 1.46%, we estimate MDKA’s fair value to be at Rp2,510 (implying 10.03x/2.66x expected EV/EBITDA and P/BV).
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PTPP : A Challenging Start, With Opportunities Ahead

11 Jun 2025 Company Update
PTPP recorded revenue of IDR3.51 trillion in 1Q25 (–39.6% QoQ; –23.9% YoY), mainly due to a significant contraction in the construction services segment (–35.5% QoQ; –24.3% YoY) and a sharp drop in the EPC segment (–63.8% QoQ; –43.2% YoY). The revenue weakness reflects a larger portion of joint operation projects, which contribute less to recognized income compared to regular contracts. Net profit fell to IDR59 billion (–60.0% QoQ; –37.2% YoY), in line with a decline in operating profit to IDR214 billion. Despite this, contributions from other income and joint ventures helped maintain net profit margin at 1.7%. PTPP currently manages 76 active projects, mostly located in Java (37 projects), Kalimantan (13), and Sumatra (9).New contract realization reached IDR7.39 trillion, falling short of both our estimate (Phintas: 27%) and management’s target (~26%). Notably, funding composition shifted significantly in 4M25, with private sector contribution increasing to 45% (vs 18% in 4M24), SOEs at 38% (vs 24%), and government share declining to 17% (vs 57%). This reflects the rising role of private and SOE projects amid fiscal consolidation. By segment, new contracts were dominated by port (32%), building (30%), and road & bridge (19%) projects, with notable contributions from the NPEA Section 2 (IDR2.3 trillion) and Kataraja Toll Road Phase 2 (IDR1.3 trillion).On the macro front, the government is enhancing focus and project efficiency by restructuring the Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing. Through the 2025 State Budget, several Physical Special Allocation Funds (DAK Fisik) are prioritized—including road and bridge development across 35 provinces, irrigation networks, flood control, and SPAM (drinking water infrastructure) expansion. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Housing was allocated IDR5.3 trillion to support the 3-million-home program aimed at reducing the housing backlog.We initiate coverage on PTPP with a BUY recommendation and a target price of IDR600, based on a DCF valuation (WACC: 7.11%, Terminal Growth: 0.5%). We are optimistic on PTPP’s outlook, driven by strong project pipelines, momentum from industrial downstreaming policy, and the reopening of IKN funding. Additionally, the company’s asset divestment strategy is expected to enhance its balance sheet and support long-term profitability. Downside risks to our view include: 1) project delays from budget cuts or tender postponements, 2) raw material cost volatility, and 3) tightening liquidity that could pressure margins.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Disclaimer OnContact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id
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ERAA : iPhone 16 Series Potentially Drives Revenue in FY25

16 May 2025 Company Update
ERAA booked a decrease in revenue by 4.61% YoY to IDR15.88 trillion in 1Q25. This decrease was caused by the operator product segment sales, which decreased significantly by 28.23%% YoY to IDR396 billion in 1Q25, followed by the cellular phones and tablet segment, which decreased by 9.15% YoY to IDR12.34 trillion in 1Q25.We estimate ERAA's net profit to potentially increase by 9.59% YoY to IDR1.22 trillion in FY25F. This estimate is based on potential revenue growth of 9.04% YoY to IDR71.18 trillion in FY25F amidst a potential smartphone market that could drive future profitability. In 1Q25, ERAA's net profit decreased by 20.5% YoY to IDR212 billion. The decrease was in line with ERAA's lower revenue in 1Q25.The smartphone market in Indonesia grew by 15.5% YoY to nearly 40 million units in 2024. This growth is driven by the ultra-low-end smartphone segment (priced US$600) decreasing by 9.2% YoY in line with the iPhone 16 ban in 4Q24.The iPhone 16 series has been officially released in Indonesia since April 2025. We assess that ERAA will benefit from the entry of the iPhone 16 into Indonesia, considering that ERAA has iBox outlets to sell iPhone products.We give a Buy recommendation for ERAA with an estimated fair value of IDR555 per share or a potential upside of 11.45%. This recommendation is based on a calculation using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.60% and a Terminal Growth of 2.29%.
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INCO : Initial Ore Sales Offset by Lower Nickel Matte ASP

16 May 2025 Company Update
INCO reported a net profit of US$21.80 million in 1Q25 (+228% QoQ; +252% YoY). This result was driven by gains from a fair value assessment of a call option related to the HPAL project (IGP Pomalaa). A positive contribution also came from the initial sale of nickel ore, which generated revenue of US$2.54 million in 1Q25.Total revenue declined to US$206.53 million (-14.60% QoQ; -10.18% YoY). The decrease was attributed to a 10.94% QoQ drop in nickel matte sales volume to 17,096 tons (vs. 19,196 tons in 4Q24), along with a lower average selling price (ASP), which fell to US$11,932/ton (-5.28% QoQ from US$12,597/ton in 4Q24).Cash costs improved in line with lower energy expenses. Despite the weaker nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) affecting the ASP, INCO successfully implemented significant cost-control measures in 1Q25, reducing its cash cost by 5.31% QoQ to US$8,501/ton (vs. US$8,978/ton in 4Q24). The reduction was primarily supported by lower HSFO and coal consumption.Focus on initiating nickel ore sales and diversifying downstream products. INCO is taking strategic steps to start nickel ore sales as part of its efforts to strengthen its commercial strategy. The company has received approval for the revised 2024 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) and plans to submit the 2025 RKAB. Using the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, with a required rate of return of 8.78% and a terminal growth rate of 1.46%, we estimate the fair value of INCO’s fair value at IDR 3,560 per share (implying 32.67x / 0.82x expected P/E and P/BV). This positive outlook is supported by improved cash cost efficiency and product diversification.
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