PTBA new railway project, The Tanjung Enim–Keramasan railway (20 Mtpa, 158 km), targeted for operation in 2Q26, alongside port capacity upgrades, is expected to materially improve logistics efficiency and reduce transportation costs over the medium to long term.

Global coal demand in 2026 is expected to remain flat, with growth in China and India offsetting declines elsewhere, while production is projected to contract amid oversupply and policy tightening; in Indonesia, output remains high but is set to be reduced in 2026 to support prices and rebalance domestic and export supply.

In 9M25, PTBA’s revenue grew 2% YoY on higher sales volumes despite lower ASPs, while net profit declined due to weaker coal prices and higher fuel costs. Production and transportation volumes remained strong, supported by non-KAI logistics optimization.

Revenue is projected to remain relatively flat in FY25F–FY26F before rebounding in FY27F, reflecting resilient fundamentals amid a normalized coal price environment.

We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation on PTBA with a target price of 2,800 per share using DCF valuation. underpinned by solid fundamentals and expected logistics-driven cost efficiencies.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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