Public consumption remained solid in May 2025. Inflation in Indonesia stood at 1.60% YoY in May 2025. Over the past year, the average inflation in Indonesia has been 1.56%, so while inflation in May 2025 decreased compared to April 2025, the inflation in May 2025 is still relatively stable.

The government gave various economic stimulus packages in June-July 2025. We assess that the stimulus package given by the government has the potential to maintain public purchasing power.

Average raw material prices tend to mix. The average wheat prices decreased by 9.9% YoY to US$549/Bu in 5M25, the average price of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) increased by 4.8% YoY to MYR4,210/ton in 5M25, the average price of cocoa increased by 18.5% YoY to US$9,302/ton in 5M25 and the average price of coffee increased significantly by 83.22% YoY to US$373/lb in 5M25.

Corn and Soybean Meal (SBM) prices softened in 5M25. The average domestic corn price decreased by 23.18% YoY to Rp6,274/kg in 5M25. Meanwhile, the average price of SBM decreased by 13.47% YoY to US$301/ton in 5M25.

The revenue performance of consumer issuers in our coverage showed a positive trend. In 1Q25, all consumer issuers in our coverage continued this positive revenue performance trend. This condition indicates that the consumer sector still has attractive prospects in the long term.

Overweight rating on the Consumer Sector. With the various catalysts above, we give an Overweight rating to the consumer sector. Our top picks in the consumer sector are INDF, with an estimated fair value of IDR 9,000; ICBP, with an estimated fair value of IDR 13,275; and CPIN, with an estimated fair value of IDR 5,400.