Consumer confidence trend weakened in the past year. As of September 2025, the CCI was recorded at level 115.0, a decrease from level 117.2 in August 2025, and became the lowest level since April 2022. This condition indicates that consumers are starting to be more cautious in their consumption, especially for non-basic needs products.

Inflation in several expenditure groups showed mixed trends. The food, beverage, and tobacco group experienced the most volatile movement compared to other groups. As of October 2025, inflation in this group reached 4.99% YoY, indicating that the prices of goods and services in this group have increased relatively, therefore potentially reducing people’s purchasing power in non-basic expenditure groups.

Retail sales relatively solid until August 2025. As of August 2025, retail sales grew 3.5% YoY to 223.6. Despite lower than the 4.7% YoY growth in July 2025, on a monthly basis, the realization grew 0.6% MoM, indicating a recovery towards the end of the year.

Online sales of retail issuers showed a positive trend. This condition indicates that the e-commerce platforms provided by retail issuers are quite effective in fulfilling the needs of modern consumers. In addition, the majority of retail issuers are focused on expanding their stores to areas outside Java, aligned with the high consumption potential in outside Java, which is expected to drive long-term revenue growth.

With the various catalyst above, we upgrade our rating to overweight for the Retailers sector. Our top picks in the Retailers sector are MIDI, with an estimated fair value of IDR530/share, and ERAA, with an estimated fair value of IDR555/share.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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