Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada rekor tertinggi baru di Kamis (2/10).Investor masih cenderung mengabaikan government shutdown yang memasuki hari kedua.Menteri Keuangan AS memperingatkan bahwa dampak shutdown ini bisa lebih besar dari yang sebelumnya.Rilis data nonfarm payrolls berpotensi tertunda.USD indeks melemah mendekati level terendah dalam sepekan (2/10).Harga minyak turun sekitar 2% ke level terendah dalam empat bulan, karena kekhawatiran tentang kelebihan pasokan di pasar menjelang pertemuan OPEC+ selama akhir pekan.U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 2 bps di level 4.088%.Harga emas spot turun 0.5% ke level US$3,845/troy oz (2/10).Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi bergerak cenderung melemah di kisaran 8020-8050 pada perdagangan Jumat (3/10).Top picks (3/10) : TLKM, WIFI, RAJA, BUKA dan MAPI.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Rabu (1/10).Sentimen positif berasal dari harapan government shutdown hanya berlangsung sebentar dan dampaknya terbatas.Data tenaga kerja sektor swasta yang melemah menimbulkan ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga The Fed lebih lanjut.Inflasi RI bulan September tercatat 2.65% YoY dari 2.31% YoY di Agustus 2025 dan di atas perkiraan 2.5% YoY.Indeks manufacturing PMI domestik bulan September 2025 turun di level 50.4 dari 51.5 di Agustus 2025.Neraca perdagangan bulan Agustus 2025 membukukan surplus USD5.49 miliar, naik dari USD4.18 miliar di Juli 2025.U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 4 bps di level 4.106%.Harga emas spot menguat di  level tertinggi baru US$3,866/troy oz (1/10), akibat government shutdown di AS.Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi uji level psikologis 8000 pada perdagangan Kamis (2/10).Top picks (2/10) : UNVR, ANTM, JPFA, MAIN, dan PYFA.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Selasa (30/9).Indeks Dow Jones ditutup pada level tertinggi baru, investor mengabaikan potensi government shutdown.Faktor positif masih berasal dari ekspektasi akan berlanjutnya penurunan suku bunga The Fed pada tahun ini, serta antusiasme akan AI.Dari domestik akan dirilis data indeks manufacturing PMI September 2025, neraca perdagangan dan inflasi September (1/10).U.S. 10-year Bond Yield cenderung stabil di level 4.148%.Harga emas spot naik 0.3% di  level US$3,843/troy oz (30/9).Harga minyak mentah berlanjut melemah akibat kekhawatiran akan meningkatnya suplay (30/9).IHSG diperkirakan berpotensi cenderung melemah menguji support di 8000-8020 pada perdagangan Rabu (1/10).Top picks (1/10) : AMRT, RAJA, RATU, ASRI dan KRAS.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

3 October 2025

2 October 2025

1 October 2025

Indeks di bursa Wall Street melemah pada pekan lalu.Investor cemas dengan meningkatnya kembali eskalasi perang dagang.Trump akan memberlakukan tarif impor 35% terhadap Kanada mulai 1 Agustus 2025.Uni Eropa dan Meksiko masing-masing akan dikenakan tarif 30% mulai 1 Agustus 2025.Pekan ini investor akan menantikan perkembangan tarif impor selanjutnya.Investor akan mencermati data inflasi dari AS dan Inggris, industrial production dari Euro Area dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Tiongkok yang dirilis pekan ini.Investor juga menantikan earning season 2Q 2025 di Wall Street pekan ini.Investor menantikan hasil RDG Bank Indonesia (16/7) yang diperkirakan berpotensi menurunkan BI Rate sebesar 0.25% menjadi 5.25%.Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan di 7100-7150 jika breakout MA200 di 7085.Top picks pekan ini:  ASSA, ARTO, INKP, PTBA, BBYB dan ELSA.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Ratna Lim - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di bursa Wall Street menguat pada pekan lalu.Trump menandatangani RUU pajak dan belanja negara AS menjadi UU (4/7).Pasar menantikan apa yang terjadi setelah batas waktu tarif 9 Juli 2025.Trump mulai mengirimkan surat kepada 12 negara mitra dagangnya mengenai besaran tarif yang akan mereka hadapi.Investor akan menantikan FOMC minutes dan dimulainya earning season 2Q 2025 di Wall Street.OPEC+ akan menaikkan produksi 548 ribu bpd mulai Agustus 2025.Indonesia akan menandatangani MoU dengan AS pada 7 Juli 2025, dengan menawarkan komitmen pembelian produk AS senilai US$34 miliar.Dari domestik, investor akan menantikan sejumlah data ekonomi dan pencatatan saham-saham IPO di bursa.IHSG diperkirakan konsolidasi pada kisaran 6800-7000 pada pekan ini.Top picks pekan ini: MBMA, SMDR, DATA, LSIP dan WIFI.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Ratna Lim - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di bursa Wall Street menguat pada pekan lalu.Batas waktu jeda tarif resiprokal (9/7) semakin dekat.Menteri Perdagangan AS menyatakan kerangka kerja AS-Tiongkok telah selesai.AS berharap  mencapai kesepakatan dagang dengan 10 mitra dagang utama.AS akan menghentikan negosiasi dagang dengan Kanada, karena Kanada memberlakukan pajak layanan digital kepada perusahaan teknologi AS.Fokus pasar pada pekan ini seputar negosiasi dagang, data ekonomi dan forum ECB  mengenai prospek ekonomi dan moneter.Pada pekan ini dari AS akan dirilis indeks PMI dan data tenaga kerja.Dari domestik akan menantikan data inflasi, neraca perdagangan dan cadangan devisa.IHSG diperkirakan mengalami konsolidasi di kisaran 6700-7000 pada pekan ini.Top picks pekan ini  : ASII, BMRI, TLKM, UNVR, MYOR dan MTEL.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Ratna Lim - Disclaimer On -

Pemerintah AS resmi menutup (shutdown) karena kebuntuan pendanaan Kongres yang menimbulkan ketidakpastian ekonomi dan pasar. Shutdown ini berpotensi memperburuk pasar tenaga kerja dengan PHK massal pegawai federal dan menunda rilis data ekonomi penting, sementara volatilitas pasar saham kemungkinan meningkat akibat ketidakpastian suku bunga dan nilai aset. Selain itu, Presiden Donald Trump memanfaatkan situasi ini guna mengurangi jumlah pekerja pemerintah federal, sementara negosiasi antara partai masih berlangsung tanpa kesepakatan.Surplus perdagangan Indonesia melebar menjadi US$5.49 miliar pada Agustus 2025, naik dari US$2.78 miliar tahun sebelumnya dan melampaui perkiraan pasar sebesar US$3.99 miliar, didorong oleh kenaikan ekspor 5.78% YoY dan penurunan impor 6.56% YoY. Pertumbuhan ekspor melambat dari 9.86% YoY di Juli karena tarif AS baru, sementara impor turun untuk bulan kedua berturut-turut dengan kontraksi terendah sejak Mei 2024. 

Indeks PMI manufaktur AS dari S&P Global turun ke 52 pada September 2025, didorong oleh melambatnya pesanan baru akibat tarif dan permintaan ekspor lemah, meskipun kepercayaan bisnis dan penyerapan tenaga kerja meningkat. Disisi lain, Indeks ISM naik tipis ke 49.1 namun masih kontraksi selama tujuh bulan berturut-turut, dengan produksi naik dan tekanan biaya tetap tinggi akibat tarif dan lemahnya permintaan.Inflasi Indonesia meningkat menjadi 2.65% YoY di September 2025 dari 2.31% YoY di Agustus, tertinggi sejak Mei 2024, terutama ditopang oleh kenaikan harga pangan sebesar 5.01% YoY. Inflasi inti juga naik tipis menjadi 2.19% YoY, sementara inflasi bulanan meningkat 0.21% MoM, melampaui ekspektasi pasar yang 0.13% MoM. Disisi lain, indeks PMI Manufaktur Indonesia turun menjadi 50.4 pada September 2025 dari 51.5 di Agustus, namun masih menunjukkan ekspansi aktivitas pabrik untuk dua bulan berturut-turut. Pesanan baru terus naik, sementara hasil produksi menurun akibat lemahnya daya beli pelanggan.

JOLTs Job Openings di AS pada Agustus 2025 naik 19 ribu menjadi 7.23 juta dari revisi naik 7.21 juta di Juli, sesuai ekspektasi pasar. Kenaikan lowongan terjadi di sektor kesehatan dan bantuan sosial (+81 ribu), rekreasi dan perhotelan (+97 ribu), serta perdagangan ritel (+55 ribu), sementara penurunan terjadi di konstruksi (-115 ribu) dan pemerintah federal (-61 ribu).Menteri Keuangan RI, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, memastikan rasio defisit APBN 2026 akan tetap berada di bawah 3% terhadap PDB, meskipun dilakukan pelebaran defisit dari 2.48% menjadi 2.68% akibat kenaikan anggaran transfer ke daerah. Kebijakan ini bertujuan mengurangi keresahan masyarakat akibat pajak daerah yang naik tinggi, sekaligus menjaga stabilitas ekonomi tanpa ekspansi besar dari pemerintah. Pengelolaan keuangan diperbaiki untuk mendorong sektor swasta dan menjaga kepercayaan pelaku ekonomi, dengan tetap mengikuti ketentuan Undang-Undang Keuangan Negara. 

14 July 2025

7 July 2025

30 June 2025

Code : EMAS Sector : Basic Materials Sub-Sector : Diversified Metals & Minerals--------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAMPerkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 15 September 2025Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 17 September 2025 - 19 September 2025Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 19 September 2025Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 22 September 2025Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 23 September 2025--------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAMSebanyak-banyaknya 1.618.023.300 (satu miliar enam ratus delapan belas juta dua puluh tiga ribu tiga ratus) saham biasa atas nama, yang mewakili sebesar-besarnya 10,00% (sepuluh koma nol nol persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham, yang dikeluarkan dari portepel Perseroan.Nilai Nominal : Rp150 per lembar sahamHarga Penawaran : Rp1800 - Rp3020 per lembar sahamJumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp4.886.430.366.000Penjamin Emisi : PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk PT Sinarmas Sekuritas PT Indo Premier Sekuritas--------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasprofitsBy PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Code : MERI Sector : Consumer Cyclicals Sub-Sector : Education Services--------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAMPerkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 30 Juni 2025Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 2 Juli 2025 - 7 Juli 2025Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 7 Juli 2025Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 8 Juli 2025Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 9 Juli 2025--------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAMSebanyak – banyaknya 266.660.000 (dua ratus enam puluh enam juta enam ratus enam puluh ribu) Saham Biasa Atas Nama yang seluruhnya adalah saham baru dan dikeluarkan dari portepel Perseroan atau sebanyak – banyaknya 25% (dua puluh lima persen) dari total modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh setelah Penawaran Umum.Nilai Nominal : Rp12.5 per lembar sahamHarga Penawaran : Rp110 - Rp150 per lembar sahamJumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp39.999.000.000Penjamin Emisi : PT Lotus Andalan Sekuritas--------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficialBy PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

Code : PMUI Sector : Consumer Cyclicals Sub-Sector : Consumer Distributors--------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAMPerkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 30 Juni 2025Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 2 Juli 2025 - 4 Juli 2025Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 4 Juli 2025Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 7 Juli 2025Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 8 Juli 2025--------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAMSebanyak-banyaknya 1.160.000.000 (satu miliar seratus enam puluh juta) Saham Biasa Atas Nama atau mewakili sebanyak-banyaknya 20% (dua puluh persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham.Nilai Nominal : Rp50 per lembar sahamHarga Penawaran : Rp160 - Rp180 per lembar sahamJumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp208.800.000.000Penjamin Emisi : PT Korea Investment and Sekuritas Indonesia--------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficialBy PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

BRIS booked a solid performance by posting a 22.20% YoY net profit growth to IDR 7.39 trillion in 2Q25.This was supported by growth in Net Margin Income to IDR 5.1 trillion (+23.8% YoY) in 2Q25 and PPOP to IDR 3.17 trillion (+12.5% YoY) in 2Q25.In terms of financing, BRIS booked a 13.93% YoY growth to IDR 293 trillion, primarily driven by consumer financing (+16% YoY), which contributed 55% to total financing.Bullion Bank increases the contribution of BRIS's gold business. BRIS's gold business was able to record significant growth of +82% YoY to IDR 16.88 trillion in 6M25 with a contribution of 5% of total revenue in 6M25 vs. (FY21: 2%).Gold business provides high returns for BRIS with controlled costs (Blended Gold Yield 13.18% vs. Blended Gold CoC 0.02%).With BRIS's performance in line with our expectations, we maintain our Buy rating for BRIS with the same projection and fair value as in the previous BRIS company update, which was IDR 3,580.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BMRI's interest income grew 14.3% YoY to Rp41.95 trillion in 2Q25. Meanwhile, interest expense and operating expenses increased significantly (+26.1% YoY and +15.3%) in 2Q25.BMRI also lowered its guidance for FY25, with its NIM target lowered to 4.8%-5% from 5.0%-5.2%, and loan growth to 8%-10% from 10%-12%.Wholesale Business was able to maintain BMRI's loan growth. BMRI booked 11% YoY loan growth to Rp1.701 trillion in 6M25, with Wholesale Business contributing the largest 54% of total loans.We estimate BMRI's interest income will grow 7% YoY in FY25F. Several factors, such as improving domestic consumption, downstreaming, and the government's allocation of IDR 55 trillion in funds, have the potential to support BMRI's loan growth.Other revenue optimization comes from non-interest income (NII), including the adaptation of Livin', which contributed an 11.9% YoY increase to BMRI's NII growth in 6M25.With the potential for BMRI's performance recovery, we maintain our Buy rating for BMRI, with the same projections and fair value as in our previous company update, at IDR 6,325.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BBTN's interest income grew 23.5% YoY to IDR 18.5 trillion in 6M25. Interest expenses increased 2.3% YoY to IDR 9.15 trillion, with a Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) of IDR 5.8 trillion (+100.6% YoY) in 6M25.Therefore, when interest rates are lowered, BBTN's performance becomes more optimal in 6M25. BBTN's Net Interest Margin (NIM) grew 140 bps to 4.4% in 6M25.BBTN revised its 2025F loan growth target upwards to 7%-9% from the previous 7-8%. BBTN's total loan grew 6.8% YoY to Rp376 trillion in 6M25, supported by mortgage growth of 7.5% YoY in 6M25.BBTN's liquidity improved in 6M25, with the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) decreasing 380 bps YoY to 92.6% in 6M25. Maintained liquidity conditions can improve BBTN's ability to disburse loan.Current Account Savings Account (CASA) grew 5.6% YoY to IDR 199.7 trillion in 6M25. Furthermore, BBTN booked total Third Party Funds of IDR 406 trillion (+11.2% YoY) in 6M25.The significant growth in CASA represents an effort to mitigate the negative impact of high interest rates on the cost of funds.Maintained liquidity and the potential recovery of the property sector in 2H25, we estimate BBTN can record interest income growth of 9% YoY for 2025F.With BBTN's performance in line with our estimates, we maintain projection from the previous BBTN Company Update, with a fair value of Rp 1,250.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

SIDO experienced a decrease in revenue by 3.57% YoY to IDR1.83 trillion in 6M25, along with lower sales in all of SIDO's business segments in 6M25. Going forward, we expect a better demand in 2H25, along with the estimated peak of the rainy season that will happen from November 2025 to February 2026, which can potentially boost the demand for SIDO's Tolak Angin products.We estimate SIDO's net profit to be stable in FY25F. This estimate is based on the limited revenue growth potential in FY25F due to people's purchasing power that has not fully recovered, especially in the lower-middle class. During 6M25, SIDO experienced a decrease in net profit by 1.32% YoY to IDR600 billion, along with the decrease in revenue, which caused operating profit to decrease by 1.75% YoY to IDR746 billion in 6M25.The chemical, pharmaceutical, and traditional medicine industries still have room to grow in the long term. This is based on the GDP trends of the chemical, pharmaceutical, and traditional medicine industries, which have continued to recover after Covid-19. In addition, manufacturing activity in this industry remains in an expansive zone in 2Q25 and has tended to stabilize over the past year.SIDO is the market leader for common cold products, with the Tolak Angin brand. In addition, SIDO's Tolak Angin and Kuku Bima Ener-G! products have successfully penetrated the global market. This indicates that SIDO's products are not only well-received in the domestic market but also able to compete globally, which is expected to drive long-term growth.We give a Buy recommendation for SIDO with an estimated fair value of IDR635 per share or potential upside of 20.95%. This recommendation is based on a calculation using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 8.26% and a Terminal Growth of 2.00%.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

STAA is a fully integrated palm oil company with 49k hectares of planted land across North & South Sumatra and Kalimantan. The plantation profile is relatively young, with an average tree age of 14 years—74.3% in prime stage (8–20 years), 9.4% mature (>20 years), and 10% immature. Productivity remains superior, with combined FFB yields of 23.41 tons/ha and 23.98 tons/ha for nucleus estates, above the industry average of ~19–20 tons/ha. Operations are supported by 10 palm oil mills (450 TPH), a kernel crushing plant (600 TPD), a solvent extraction plant (500 TPD), and a downstream refinery & fractionation facility (2,000 TPD), making STAA fully integrated from upstream to downstream.CPO production is expected to remain stable in 2H25F under neutral climatic conditions, with an 82% ENSO-neutral probability through August and 48% into winter, maintaining consistent rainfall in Southeast Asia. A major supply rebound appears limited, given structural headwinds in Indonesia and Malaysia such as stagnant output, aging trees, and slow replanting. On pricing, global CPO has averaged USD 972/MT as of mid-September, while price spreads have narrowed due to India’s restocking ahead of Diwali and lower import tariffs, offering modest price support.We project FY25E revenue of IDR 8.38 trillion (+30.1% YoY), underpinned by stronger volumes, improved ASP, and incremental downstream contribution from the refinery (olein ~IDR 4.43 trillion, stearin ~IDR 838 billion, RBDPO ~IDR 99 billion, PFAD ~IDR 205 billion). Gross profit is forecast at IDR 2.23 trillion (+1.98% YoY) with ~27% margin, initially weighed by external CPO purchases (IDR 1.12 trillion) and new plant ramp-up. Margins are expected to expand to 28–29% in FY26–FY27F as internal feedstock utilization improves. Net profit FY25E is estimated at IDR 1.33 trillion (+3.6% YoY) with a 16% net margin, rising to IDR 1.64 trillion (+23.7% YoY) and ~18–19% margin in FY26F–FY28F as downstream operations scale.We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and a target price of IDR 1,400/share, implying PER of 11.5x/9.3x and PBV of 2.5x/2.1x for FY25E/FY26F, using a DCF approach (WACC 11.5%; TG 2.5%). The stock currently trades at an EV/ha of IDR 299 million, above the industry average of IDR 162.9 million—reflecting its younger plantation profile, high productivity, low replanting needs, and growing downstream integration.We view STAA as attractive due to: (1) productive plantation age averaging 14 years, (2) core estate yields near 24 tons/ha, (3) new Riau refinery enhancing value capture, and (4) a healthy balance sheet with low leverage to support measured growth.Key downside risks include: (1) global CPO price volatility, (2) weather-related yield disruptions, (3) fertilizer price fluctuations, and (4) regulatory changes on biodiesel mandates or export taxes.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research –Disclaimer On–

TAPG posted solid top-line growth in 2Q25, driven by strong performance in the CPO, PK, and PKO segments. Revenue reached IDR 2.89 trillion (+10.2% QoQ; +33.4% YoY), mainly from CPO at IDR 2.34 trillion (+7.1% QoQ; +24.4% YoY) with sales volume of 168k tons (+11.7% QoQ; +12.6% YoY) despite a slight ASP decline to IDR 13,895/kg (-4.1% QoQ; +10.5% YoY). The PK segment contributed IDR 348 billion (+13.6% QoQ; +94.9% YoY), while PKO also performed well with 6.6k tons (+50.0% QoQ; +20.0% YoY) and ASP rising to IDR 26,451/kg (+7.6% QoQ; +64.1% YoY).Profitability improved as COGS was well-managed, standing at IDR 1.76 trillion (+3.3% QoQ; +22.6% YoY), driven by higher raw material costs of IDR 1.23 trillion (+10.0% QoQ; +35.5% YoY) and external FFB purchases of 338k tons (+9.0% QoQ; +18.8% YoY). Gross profit reached IDR 1.12 trillion (+23.3% QoQ; +55.5% YoY), while net profit was IDR 889 billion (+10.4% QoQ; +49.3% YoY) with net margin improving to 30.8%. Earnings from associates of IDR 272 billion (+4.8% QoQ; +37.7% YoY) also supported the bottom line.TAPG 1H25 strong results prompt upward revisions: FY25F/FY26F revenue +4.8%/+7.3%, EBITDA +5.9%/+7.9%, NP +5.5%/+9.6%. CPO prices seen stable at MYR4,200–4,500/MT, while higher PK & PKO ASPs boost margins.We maintain our BUY recommendation with an increased target price of IDR 1,700/share, implying P/E of 9.2x/8.3x and P/BV of 2.8x/2.6x for FY25F/FY26F.We view TAPG as still attractive due to: (1) a relatively young plantation profile (blended age: 14.2 years) with stable productivity prospects, (2) a consistent dividend track record (DPR AVG-3Y: >50%), and (3) a healthy and solid balance sheet with DER <1xKey downside risks : (1) global CPO and edible oil price volatility, (2) unfavorable government regulations, and (3) weather disruptions affecting plantation productivity.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On-

The increase in deposits and CASA funds drove improvements in banking liquidity in 6M25. The Indonesian banking sector's Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) was booked at 86.40% (-176 bps MoM; +65 bps YoY) in June 2025.Five cuts in the benchmark interest rate will boost loan growth. Bank Indonesia (BI) lowered the interest rate by another 25 bps to 4.75% in September 2025, marking the fifth such reduction in 2025.Asset quality improvements have the potential to continue in the 2H25. Non Performing Loan ratio (NPL) remained stable at 2.17%, down 60 bps YoY and 60 bps MoM in June 2025.The Macroprudential Liquidity Policy, along with the transfer of IDR 200 trillion from the state budget to Himbara, has the potential to increase banking liquidity.The trend in Islamic financing distribution in Indonesia shows positive growth, with total Islamic banking assets reaching nearly IDR 967 trillion in June 2025, and Islamic financing growing 8.38% YoY compared to conventional bank loan growth of +7.77% YoY in June 2025.In line with these developments, conventional banks are currently starting to spin off Sharia Business Units in accordance with the provisions of POJK Number 12 of 2023.The banks under our coverage booked mixed performances. BRIS, which booked loan growth (+23.97% YoY), ROE (+40 bps), and net profit (+10.21% YoY) in 6M25. BBCA also booked loan growth (+12.9% YoY), ROE (+40 bps), and net profit (+8.0% YoY) in 6M25. Meanwhile, BBRI, BMRI, and BBNI booked 6M25 performance below our expectations.With the various catalysts above, as well as the performance of each bank in the banking sector, we make our top picks BRIS with a potential fair value of Rp3,580 and BBCA with a potential fair value of Rp11,400.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Volume recovery remains relatively fragile despite the monthly improvement. National cement sales in Jul-25 stood at 5.8 million tons (+18.4% MoM; -3.8% YoY), bringing cumulative 7M25 volumes to 32.9 million tons (-3.2% YoY) or 51.5% of our FY25E. Bulk cement was the main driver in July with sales of 1.70 million tons (+21.7% MoM; -10.8% YoY), while bagged cement recorded 4.09 million tons (+17.1% MoM; -0.5% YoY). Cumulatively, bagged cement sales remained stable at 13.56 million tons as of 7M25, whereas bulk cement contracted by 10.2% YoY to 7.60 million tons, mainly affected by the delayed execution of IKN project developments. From a regional perspective, all areas posted a rebound in July (Table 1), although cumulatively, Jakarta (1.16m tons, -17.2% YoY), Kalimantan (2.45m tons, -18.8% YoY), and Yogyakarta (519k tons, -10.4% YoY) still booked contractions.Both major players successfully increased market share in Jul-25. INTP recorded cement sales of 1.69 million tons (+20.5% MoM; +17.1% YoY), with market share rising to 29.2% (vs. 28.7% in Jun-25), bringing cumulative 7M25 sales to 8.0 million tons (-2.8% YoY). SMGR booked cement sales of 2.80 million tons (+20.8% MoM; -16.9% YoY), bringing cumulative 7M25 volumes to 12.93 million tons (-7.7% YoY), with July market share improving to 48.25% (vs. 47.32% in Jun-25). On a monthly basis, INTP and SMGR expanded their market shares by +50bps and +93bps, respectively. However, cumulatively, SMGR’s sales performance contracted more significantly, while INTP demonstrated relative resilience, with declines of -7.7% YoY vs. -2.8% YoY, respectively.The rebound in Jul-25 provides an early indication of improving demand, in line with the seasonal trend in the second half of the year. As highlighted in our previous report, we expect sector performance to improve in 3Q25–4Q25, supported by the historical trend over the past four years where sales contribution during these quarters remained stable at around 27–28% of full-year volumes. Additional factors such as fewer national holidays in 2H25 and higher government spending in the second half are expected to act as catalysts. Moreover, we continue to monitor the realization of government programs that are projected to support cement demand going forward.We maintain our Neutral rating on the cement sector, given the still fragile volume recovery despite sequential improvement. The bagged segment remains stagnant amid weak consumer purchasing power, while the bulk segment continues to contract, leading to a cumulative national volume decline of -3.2% YoY as of 7M25. At the company level, we downgrade INTP from BUY to HOLD with a target price of Rp6,500, as the target has already been achieved, implying EV/EBITDA valuations of 5.33x (FY25E) and 4.70x (FY26F). Upside risks include: (1) faster and larger-than-expected government spending, (2) stronger-than-expected recovery in bulk demand, and (3) stabilization of energy prices supporting profitability.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -Contact Us : WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

Both plantation names under our coverage delivered solid performance in 1Q25, with AALI posted robust revenue growth of 46.3% YoY, supported by higher sales volumes of CPO and palm kernel and SSMS also reporting a 14.42% YoY increase in net profit to IDR276.90 billion, supported by efficient cost control and young plantation profile.Indonesia's CPO production rebounded in March 2025 to 4.81 million tons (+16.05% MoM), though 1Q25 output was still down –1.82% YoY, reflecting the lagging impact of El Niño. Domestic demand remained firm at 6.05 million tons for 3M25 (+6.0% YoY), backed by strong biodiesel uptake (+8.5% YoY). Exports also rose (+12.4% YoY), supported by stronger refined product volumes and a weaker rupiah.We forecast CPO prices to hover around RM4,100–4,500/ton in 2H25F, driven by tight supply in Malaysia and continued domestic absorption in Indonesia. Demand from India is expected to strengthen amid restocking trends and lower import duties, while CPO’s pricing discount to soybean oil continues to support its global competitiveness.We maintain our Overweight rating on the plantation sector, favoring names with strong production visibility, younger estates, and efficient cost structures. Key downside risks include CPO price volatility and unfavorable policy shifts that may impact margins.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On-

Indonesia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose on an annual basis, bringing inflation to 2.65% YoY in September 2025, up from 2.31% YoY in August 2025, marking the highest inflation rate since May 2024. Core inflation increased slightly to 2.19% YoY in September 2025 from 2.17% YoY in August 2025. Commodities contributing to the core inflation component included gold jewelry, cooking oil, and instant coffee. Meanwhile, the volatile food component recorded the highest inflation, at 6.44% YoY in September 2025, mainly driven by rising prices of red chili peppers, shallots, rice, and broiler chicken meat. The administered price component experienced 1.10% YoY inflation, with major contributions from PAM water tariffs, machine-made kretek cigarettes (SKM), and household fuels.

Indonesia’s Trade Balance Surplus (NPI) increased to US$5.49 billion in August 2025 from US$4.17 billion in July 2025. This improvement was driven by a higher non-oil and gas surplus, which rose to US$7.15 billion in August 2025 from US$5.75 billion in July 2025, supported mainly by animal and vegetable fats, mineral fuels, and iron and steel commodities. Meanwhile, the oil and gas trade balance recorded a wider deficit of US$1.66 billion in August 2025, compared to US$1.58 billion in July 2025, primarily due to higher deficits in crude oil and oil products. The trade balance has maintained a surplus for 64 consecutive months since May 2020. The United States contributed the largest surplus of US$12.20 billion, while the largest deficit came from China, amounting to US$13.09 billion during January to August 2025.

The Bank Indonesia Board of Governors Meeting (RDG BI) cut interest rates to 5.25% with a Deposit Facility Rate of 4.50% and Lending Facility Rate of 6.00% on July 16, 2025. This decision aligns with the expected inflation rate to fall below the target of 2.5±1% in 2026 and 2027. Additionally, BI assesses that the current Rupiah exchange rate is relatively stable compared to the currencies of Indonesia's developing trade partners and advanced economies, excluding the US, thus supporting Indonesia's export competitiveness. The stable exchange rate is supported by continued foreign capital inflows, particularly into government securities (SBN), and foreign currency conversion to Rupiah following the Natural Resources Export Proceeds (DHE-SDA) policy.

At the start of Donald Trump’s second presidency, trade wars re-emerged as a key global issue.President Trump's reciprocal tariff policy took effect on February 1, 2025, introducing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports.The swift in the global trade policies has increased the economic uncertainty.The Fed still sees the potential for two rate cuts this year, although it will continue to monitor the impact of tariffs. The Fed has signaled concerns about slowing economic growth and faster inflation.Geopolitical tensions have escalated in several regions.Commodity prices have become increasingly sensitive to global developments. Commodity price movements have shown divergence, with gold experiencing the highest gains, while coal prices have seen the sharpest declines.Crude prices rise to US$80–US$100/barrel if the Israel-Iran war continues and escalates.Exchange rates are expected to stabilize. After a period of volatility driven by the tariff war, exchange rate movements are projected to become more stable as trade tensions ease and potential monetary policy loosening comes into play.IHSG targeted 7,692 in 2025: Considering the various opportunities and challenges faced in 2025.Sectoral Coverage: Banking, Cement, Construction, CPO, Metals & Mining, Food & Beverage, Poultry, Retailers, Properties & Real estate, Telecommunication, and Tower.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT)-13 November 2024-Indonesia's economy has shown a solid recovery, with GDP growth observed across spending sectors. This reflects resilience and a balanced approach to economic recovery.Household consumption remains a primary driver of economic growth, contributing steadily to domestic demand and encouraging broader sectoral gains.Business conditions have improved, seen in positive consumer confidence and absolute sales indices, creating a supportive environment for local and international investments.Indicators such as decreasing poverty and unemployment rates and improvements in income distribution suggest gradual progress in the quality of life for many Indonesians.The government has set an optimistic economic growth target of 5.20% for 2025, with strong domestic consumption expected to play a central role in achieving this goal.Prabowo-Gibran administration intends to prioritize human resource development, emphasizing educational improvement, vocational training, and digital skills to strengthen workforce readiness.Bank Indonesia is expected to continue with flexible monetary policies, which may include easing measures, to help sustain economic growth amid global uncertainties.IHSG targeted 8698 in 2025: Considering the various opportunities and challenges faced in 2025.Sectoral Coverage: Banking, Cement, Metal & Mining, Food & Beverage, Poultry, Properties & Real estate, Telecommunication, and Tower.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

The majority of countries started to show an increase in economic growth in 2Q24, after experiencing a slowdown at the beginning of the year.Global monetary policy was less-aggressive than expected in 2024. Several central banks started easing their monetary policy in 3Q24 as the inflation rate flattened.Geopolitical conflicts continue in 2024. The conflict in the Middle East has expanded to involve countries other than Israel and Palestine. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue.Several commodity prices tend to stagnate in 2024 and There is still uncertainty risk from geopolitical conflict.Political conditions in global countries' election years were relatively stable.Economic activity's recovery has the potential to continue in 2025. This is driven by the easing of the monetary policy of several central banks, which could continue in 2025.The exchange rate has the potential to be more stable in 2025.By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -