Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat (3/6). Pasar menantikan kemungkinan pembicaraan antara Presiden Trump dan Presiden Xi pekan ini. Pemerintahan Trump memberi batas waktu (4/5) kepada negara-negara mitra dagangnya untuk menyampaikan proposal perdagangan untuk negosiasi dagang sebelum jeda 90 hari tarif resiprokal berakhir. Data inflasi Euro Area Mei 2025 turun ke 1.9% YoY dari 2.2% YoY di April 2025. Data Caixin Manufacturing PMI Tiongkok Mei 2025 (3/6) turun ke 48.3 dari 50.4 di April. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 4 bps menjadi 4.45%, setelah OECD menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi AS. Harga emas koreksi sekitar 0.8% di level US$3,352/troy oz, karena kenaikan dollar AS. IHSG diperkirakan bergerak fluktuatif di kisaran 6980-7100. Top picks (4/6) : WIFI, RAJA, ACES, SMGR dan ISAT. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Ratna Lim - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat moderat (2/6). Investor di Wall Street mengabaikan meningkatnya ketegangan AS-Tiongkok. Presiden Trump dan Presiden Xi kemungkinan akan berbicara pekan ini. Mayoritas indeks di bursa Eropa melemah (2/6), akibat rencana kenaikan tarif impor baja menjadi 50% oleh Trump. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik 2 bps menjadi 4.446%. Harga emas menguat sekitar 2% di level US$3,372/troy oz, karena melemahnya dollar AS serta kombinasi risiko geopolitik dan ketidakpastian ekonomi. Harga minyak mentah naik sekitar 3% setelah OPEC+ meningkatkan produksi pada tingkat yang stabil, meredakan kekhawatiran investor akan kenaikan produksi lebih cepat. IHSG diperkirakan akan menguji level psikologis 7000 (3/6). Top picks (3/6) : RALS, MDKA, WIFI, MEDC dan SMRA.

Indeks-indeks Wall Street menguat pada Selasa (27/5). Penguatan dipicu oleh ditundanya pemberlakuan tarif 50% untuk Uni Eropa pada 9 Juli 2025. Data consumer confidence AS bulan Mei 2025 naik pada level 98 dari 85.7 di April 2025, serta di atas perkiraan di 87. Data durable good orders April 2025 turun 6.3% MoM dari naik 7.6% MoM di Maret 2025, namun lebih baik dari estimasi yang turun 7.8% MoM. Indeks di bursa Eropa ditutup menguat (27/5), seiring meredanya ketegangan perang dagang dengan AS. LPS menurunkan tingkat bunga penjaminan sebesar 25 bps menjadi 4.0% untuk tabungan rupiah di bank umum. U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 7 basis poin menjadi 4.44%. Harga emas koreksi sekitar 1.2% di level US$3,302/troy oz, seiring meredanya ketegangan perang dagang AS-Uni Eropa. IHSG diperkirakan masih akan konsolidasi di kisaran 7130-7250 (28/5). Top picks (28/5) :  KLBF, MAPI, JPFA, ASSA dan ADRO. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Ratna Lim - Disclaimer On -

4 June 2025

3 June 2025

2 June 2025

Indeks utama di Wall Street ditutup stagnan pada Jumat (30/5), namun menguat selama pekan lalu. Pengadilan perdagangan AS memerintahkan pembatalan tarif (28/5), namun keputusan itu dibatalkan oleh pengadilan banding (29/5). Pengadilan memerintahkan penggugat memberi tanggapan paling lambat 5 Juni dan pemerintah AS 9 Juni. AS mempertimbangkan memberlakukan tarif 15% selama 150 hari. AS akan menaikkan tarif impor baja dan aluminium dari 25% menjadi 50% mulai 4 Juni 2025. Trump menuduh Tiongkok melanggar kesepakatan dagang awal. Waspadai meningkatnya ketidakpastian seputar perang tarif AS. IHSG pada pekan ini diperkirakan berpotensi koreksi minor menguji level 7100/7050. Top picks : INDF, UNTR, ASII, EMTK, ADMR dan ACES.

Indeks utama di Wall Street ditutup menguat signifikan selama pekan lalu. Faktor positif berasal dari meredanya kekhawatiran akan eskalasi perang dagang setelah tercapainya kesepakatan sementara AS-Tiongkok. Indeks The Univ. Michigan Sentiment preliminary bulan Mei turun pada level 50.8 dari bulan April 52.2 dan di bawah perkiraan 53.4. Moody’s menurunkan peringkat AS dari AAA menjadi Aa1, karena dinilai telah gagal membalikkan defisit dan beban bunga yang membesar. AS akan mengirim surat kepada beberapa mitra dagang. Pasar akan mencermati data PMI, di mana diperkirakan akan terjadi kontraksi sedikit lebih kecil dalam manufaktur di Euro Area, Jerman, Perancis dan Inggris. RDG BI diperkirakan akan mempertahankan BI rate pada 5.75% (21/5). IHSG dalam pekan ini diperkirakan akan menguji level resistance 7250. Top picks pekan ini : SIDO, ICBP, TINS, PNLF, PTBA dan NCKL. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Ratna Lim - Disclaimer On -

Indeks-indeks Wall Street lajutkan penguatan di Jumat (2/5). U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls capai 177 ribu di April 2025, jauh lebih baik dari yang dikhawatirkan (138 ribu). Tiongkok tengah mengevaluasi peluang negosiasi dagang dengan AS. Kedua hal tersebut menjadi faktor utama yang meredam kekhawatiran risiko resesi di AS. Indonesia masih melakukan negosiasi dagang dengan AS dan ternyata Indonesia memiliki daya tawar dari kondisi sejumlah mainan populer asal AS yang diproduksi di Indonesia. Kenaikan inflasi di April dinilai mengindikasikan peningkatan konsumsi domestik di April 2025, lebih baik dari kekhawatiran pasar. Indeks manufaktur Indonesia turun ke 46.7 di April 2025 dari 52.4 di Maret 2025 dipengaruhi penurunan produksi selama libur panjang Idul Fitri. Top picks : INKP, BRPT, BUMI, ICBP, MNCN dan EXCL. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Valdy K. - Disclaimer On -

U.S. JOLTs Job Openings meningkat sebesar 191 ribu menjadi 7.391 juta pada April 2025, melebihi ekspektasi pasar sebesar 7.10 juta. Kenaikan terjadi di sektor seni, hiburan, perdagangan eceran, transportasi, informasi, layanan profesional, serta pendidikan dan kesehatan swasta, sementara sektor akomodasi, makanan, dan pemerintah daerah mengalami penurunan. Secara regional, lowongan naik di wilayah Timur Laut, Selatan, dan Barat, tetapi turun di Midwest, dengan jumlah perekrutan dan pemutusan hubungan kerja yang relatif stabil masing-masing di angka 5.6 juta dan 5.3 juta. Inflasi harga konsumen di Zona Euro turun menjadi 1.9 YoY di Mei 2025, dari 2.2% YoY di April 2025 dan di bawah ekspektasi pasar sebesar 2.0% YoY. Penurunan ini terutama didorong oleh melambatnya inflasi jasa menjadi 3.2% YoY serta penurunan harga energi sebesar 3.6% YoY, sementara inflasi inti turun ke 2.3% YoY, level terendah sejak Januari 2022. Kondisi ini memperkuat perkiraan pemotongan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis poin pekan ini.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Index di AS turun menjadi 48.5 pada Mei 2025 dari 48.7 pada April, di bawah ekspektasi pasar sebesar 49.5, menandai kontraksi selama tiga bulan berturut-turut dan penurunan paling tajam sejak November 2024. Output, pesanan baru, tenaga kerja, dan backlog pesanan menurun dengan laju lebih lambat, sementara penjualan ekspor baru turun lebih tajam, serta indeks persediaan memasuki wilayah kontraksi setelah sebelumnya meningkat karena pembelian dipercepat menjelang tarif impor AS. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Index di Kanada naik menjadi 46.1 pada Mei 2025 dari 45.3 bulan sebelumnya, namun masih menunjukkan penurunan aktivitas pabrik untuk bulan keempat berturut-turut akibat kontraksi tajam pada output dan pesanan baru. Tarif dan ketidakpastian kebijakan perdagangan AS menjadi penyebab utama lemahnya permintaan pasar, yang mendorong penurunan produksi, pesanan ekspor baru, serta pengurangan tenaga kerja dan persediaan.

Ekonomi AS mengalami kontraksi sebesar 0.2% YoY pada 1Q25, sedikit membaik dari estimasi awal penurunan 0.3% YoY, namun tetap menjadi kontraksi pertama dalam tiga tahun terakhir. Penurunan ini dipicu oleh melemahnya belanja konsumen yang tumbuh hanya 1.2%, penurunan belanja pemerintah federal sebesar 4.6%, serta lonjakan impor barang dan jasa sebesar 42.6% akibat penimbunan menjelang kenaikan tarif. Selain itu inflasi PCE di AS menurun untuk bulan kedua berturut-turut, mencapai 2.1% YoY pada April 2025, turun dari 2.3% YoY pada Maret dan di bawah perkiraan 2.2% YoY.

2 June 2025

26 May 2025

19 May 2025

Code : FORE Sector : Consumer Non-Cyclicals Sub-Sector : Soft Drinks --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 25 Maret 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 26 Maret 2025 - 9 April 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 9 April 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 10 April 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 11 April 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 1.880.000.000 (satu miliar delapan ratus delapan puluh juta) saham biasa atas nama yang dikeluarkan dari portepel Perseroan (“Saham Baru”) yang mewakili 21.08% (dua puluh satu koma nol delapan persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Nilai Nominal : Rp70 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp160 - Rp202 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp379.760.000.000 Penjamin Emisi : PT Mandiri Sekuritas PT Henan Putihrai Sekuritas --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

Code : MDLA Sector : Healthcare Sub-Sector : Pharmaceuticals --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 25 Maret 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 27 Maret 2025 - 11 April 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 11 April 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 14 April 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 15 April 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 3.500.000.000 (tiga miliar lima ratus juta) saham yang mewakili sebesar-besarnya 25,000% (dua puluh lima koma nol nol nol persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham, yang seluruhnya adalah Saham Baru dan dikeluarkan dari portepel Perseroan. Nilai Nominal : Rp20 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp180 - Rp230 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp805.000.000.000 Penjamin Emisi : PT Mandiri Sekuritas PT Indo Premier Sekuritas --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

Code : YUPI Sector : Consumer Non-Cyclicals Sub-Sector : Processed Foods --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 14 Maret 2025 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 17 - 19 Maret 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 19 Maret 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 20 Maret 2025 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 21 Maret 2025 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 854.448.900 (delapan ratus lima puluh empat juta empat ratus empat puluh delapan ribu Sembilan ratus) saham biasa, yang terdiri dari (i) 256.334.700 (dua ratus lima puluh enam juta tiga ratus tiga puluh empat ribu tujuh ratus) Saham Baru yang mewakili 3,00% (tiga koma nol nol persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham dan (ii) 598.114.200 (lima ratus sembilan puluh delapan juta seratus empat belas ribu dua ratus) Saham Divestasi milik Pemegang Saham Penjual yang mewakili 7,00% (tujuh koma nol nol persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana, yang mana seluruhnya sejumlah 10,00% (sepuluh koma nol nol persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Nilai Nominal : Rp50 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp2100 - Rp2500 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp2.136.122.250.000 Penjamin Emisi : PT CIMB Niaga Sekuritas PT Mandiri Sekuritas --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

CTRA's net profit grew 27% YoY to IDR669 billion in 3M25. This achievement is in line with revenue growth of 18% YoY to IDR2.7 trillion in 3M25. The revenue growth was driven by growth in the property development segment by 23% YoY and the recurring segment by +1% YoY in 3M25. CTRA posted marketing sales of IDR3.15 trillion in 3M25, which is equivalent to 29% of the FY25F target. This achievement reflects consumer demand and solid performance to achieve the FY25F marketing sales target. Launching the Calamus Cluster at Citra Garden Bintaro is one of the drivers of 3M25 marketing sales. CTRA's geographically diversified product portfolio is a key advantage in the residential segment. We maintain our buy rating for CTRA with the same fair value as in its previous company update: Rp1,320 (+36.79%). By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119560188 IG : phintracosekuritasofficial YT : Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

ACES booked revenue growth of 7.2% YoY to IDR2.13 trillion in 1Q25. This growth was driven by a 10.64% YoY increase in sales of lifestyle products to IDR930 billion, and home improvement products increased by 5.5% YoY to IDR1.1 trillion in 1Q25. Meanwhile, toy products booked stable sales at IDR72 billion, and consignment sales decreased by 8.38% YoY to IDR34 billion. ACES's operating expenses increased by 19.97% YoY to IDR802 billion in 1Q25. This increase was driven by a 26.11% YoY increase in selling expenses to IDR651 billion and a 22.98% YoY increase in general and administrative expenses to IDR223 billion in 1Q25. In detail, the increase in ACES's operating expenses was due to an increase in advertising and promotion expenses to IDR41 billion in 1Q25 (vs. IDR18 billion in 1Q24) due to rebranding and initiatives to increase AZKO brand awareness. In addition, increases in salaries and benefits also drive the increase in operating expenses in 1Q25. ACES's net profit decreased by 32% YoY to IDR138 billion in 1Q25. This net profit is equivalent to 15% of our FY25F. We assess this condition is reasonable as ACES is a cyclical company. In addition, the decrease in ACES's net profit was also driven by an increase in financial expenses by 34.26% YoY to IDR42 billion in 1Q25. We maintain our Buy rating for ACES with the same projection and fair value as ACES’s previous company update at IDR685/share.

CPIN booked revenue growth of 11.3% YoY to IDR17.7 trillion in 1Q25. This growth was driven by increased sales in all CPIN's business segments, except for the others segment, which decreased by 9.75% YoY to IDR303 billion in 1Q25. CPIN's operating expenses decreased by 3.64% YoY to IDR973 billion in 1Q25. This decrease was mainly due to a 3.7% YoY decrease in selling expenses to IDR541 billion and a 390% YoY increase in other operating income to IDR126 billion, in line with the net gain from the sales of culled birds in 1Q25. This condition caused CPIN's operating profit to increase by 97.2% YoY to IDR2.1 trillion in 1Q25. CPIN's net profit grew 116.4% YoY to IDR1.53 trillion in 1Q25. Aside from solid operating profit along with operational efficiency, CPIN's net profit growth was also driven by a 514% YoY increase in finance income from interest on current accounts and deposits to IDR34 billion and a 29% YoY decrease in finance expense to IDR147 billion as interest expense from bank debt decreased to IDR133 billion in 1Q25. Based on CPIN's 1Q25 performance, we maintain our Buy rating for CPIN with the same projection and fair value as CPIN's previous company update at IDR5,400 per share or a potential upside of 11.34%.

ERAA booked a decrease in revenue by 4.61% YoY to IDR15.88 trillion in 1Q25. This decrease was caused by the operator product segment sales, which decreased significantly by 28.23%% YoY to IDR396 billion in 1Q25, followed by the cellular phones and tablet segment, which decreased by 9.15% YoY to IDR12.34 trillion in 1Q25. We estimate ERAA's net profit to potentially increase by 9.59% YoY to IDR1.22 trillion in FY25F. This estimate is based on potential revenue growth of 9.04% YoY to IDR71.18 trillion in FY25F amidst a potential smartphone market that could drive future profitability. In 1Q25, ERAA's net profit decreased by 20.5% YoY to IDR212 billion. The decrease was in line with ERAA's lower revenue in 1Q25. The smartphone market in Indonesia grew by 15.5% YoY to nearly 40 million units in 2024. This growth is driven by the ultra-low-end smartphone segment (priced US$600) decreasing by 9.2% YoY in line with the iPhone 16 ban in 4Q24. The iPhone 16 series has been officially released in Indonesia since April 2025. We assess that ERAA will benefit from the entry of the iPhone 16 into Indonesia, considering that ERAA has iBox outlets to sell iPhone products. We give a Buy recommendation for ERAA with an estimated fair value of IDR555 per share or a potential upside of 11.45%. This recommendation is based on a calculation using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.60% and a Terminal Growth of 2.29%.

INCO reported a net profit of US$21.80 million in 1Q25 (+228% QoQ; +252% YoY). This result was driven by gains from a fair value assessment of a call option related to the HPAL project (IGP Pomalaa). A positive contribution also came from the initial sale of nickel ore, which generated revenue of US$2.54 million in 1Q25. Total revenue declined to US$206.53 million (-14.60% QoQ; -10.18% YoY). The decrease was attributed to a 10.94% QoQ drop in nickel matte sales volume to 17,096 tons (vs. 19,196 tons in 4Q24), along with a lower average selling price (ASP), which fell to US$11,932/ton (-5.28% QoQ from US$12,597/ton in 4Q24). Cash costs improved in line with lower energy expenses. Despite the weaker nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) affecting the ASP, INCO successfully implemented significant cost-control measures in 1Q25, reducing its cash cost by 5.31% QoQ to US$8,501/ton (vs. US$8,978/ton in 4Q24). The reduction was primarily supported by lower HSFO and coal consumption. Focus on initiating nickel ore sales and diversifying downstream products. INCO is taking strategic steps to start nickel ore sales as part of its efforts to strengthen its commercial strategy. The company has received approval for the revised 2024 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) and plans to submit the 2025 RKAB. Using the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, with a required rate of return of 8.78% and a terminal growth rate of 1.46%, we estimate the fair value of INCO’s fair value at IDR 3,560 per share (implying 32.67x / 0.82x expected P/E and P/BV). This positive outlook is supported by improved cash cost efficiency and product diversification.

PANI's revenue decrease 4% YoY to Rp612 billion in 3M25. This decline was in line with the decrease in other revenues by 69% YoY to Rp6.9 billion in 3M25 due to the high base effect in 3M24. Optimal landbank with maintained debt structure. PANI has a total land area of 1,845 ha in 3M25, an increase of 238 ha compared to 1,607 ha in FY23. PIK 2 has become a prestigious residential, business, entertainment, and tourism destination. The PIK 2 area, which is close to the sea and the facilities that have been built are a special attraction for consumers, including large companies, to join, invest, and explore business opportunities. PANI properties are supported by complete infrastructure and facilities. PIK 2 is located in a strategic area, close to the outer and inner ring road toll road, making it easy to access Jakarta and South Tangerang, and only 7 minutes to SoekarnoHatta Airport. We give PANI a buy rating. Its estimated fair value is 15,200, and its potential upside is 33%. The fair value is obtained using the Discounted Cash Flow and Revalued Net Asset Value methods. It reflects 169x expected P/E FY25F and a 70% discount to NAV. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BI rate has the potential to be cut by 25 bps - 50 bps in the remainder of 2025. Given Indonesia's relatively solid macroeconomic conditions, where the inflation rate is in line with BI's assumptions (2.5%+-1% or 1.5% -3.5%) in 2025. Residential property sales grew 0.73% YoY or 33.92% QoQ in 1Q25 vs. -15.09% YoY in 4Q24. The growth of small-type houses drove this increase, small-type houses grew 21.75% YoY in 1Q25. Therefore, property issuers whose portfolios mostly consist of small-type houses, such as CTRA, booked more resilient performance. Several stimuli from the Government. The Government will continue Value Added Tax (VAT) incentive program until the end of 2025.Several stimuli from the Government. The Government will continue Value Added Tax (VAT) incentive program until the end of 2025. The majority of property issuers booked marketing sales growth in line with the FY25F target. Mortgage Growth is Still Overshadowed by Worsening Asset Quality. Annually, total KPR grew by 9.13% YoY in 3M25, lower than the 9.67% YoY growth in FY24. While quarterly, total KPR grew by 2.54% QoQ, higher than the 2.0% QoQ in 3M25. With the various catalysts above, as well as the performance of each issuer in the property sector, we make our top picks CTRA with a potential fair value of Rp1,320 > BSDE Bwith a potential fair value of Rp1,185 > PWON with a potential fair value of Rp535. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Public consumption tends to improve in April 2025. Inflation in Indonesia was at 1.95% YoY in April 2025, higher than the previous realization of 1.03% YoY in March 2025. This condition indicates that the public purchasing power tends to improve in April 2025. Technological advances drive the digital transformation of retailers. From the company's side, the digital transformation carried out has the potential to reach more consumers, especially in various regions that do not have physical outlets. We assess that this condition has the potential to positively impact the company's performance in the long term. Retailer store expansion still continues. This condition indicates that the retail sector still has great potential in the long term. The expansion has the potential to reach more consumers, which will positively impact the company's growth in the long term. The revenue of retailers in our coverage tends to be solid. Until 1Q25, the revenue performance of retail issuers was relatively increased compared to 1Q24, except for ERAA, which booked a revenue decrease of 4.6% YoY to IDR15.88 trillion in 1Q25. Neutral rating on the Retailers Sector. With various catalysts, such as continued pressure on the lower middle class and mixed performance of retailers issuers in 1Q25, we give a Neutral rating on the retailers sector. Retailers issuers in our coverage are ERAA, with an estimated fair value of IDR555; AMRT, with an estimated fair value of IDR2,570; MIDI, with an estimated fair value of IDR428; and ACES, with an estimated fair value of IDR685.

National cement sales volume in 1Q25 reached 13.16 million tons (-7.8% YoY ; -25.9% QoQ), missing both our forecast (20.6%) and the five-year average (23.1%). The weak performance was mainly driven by prolonged rainy weather and fewer effective working days caused by clustered public holidays and the Ramadan–Eid period shifting into the first quarter, which dampened construction activity. Bulk cement experienced the steepest decline, with volume falling to 3.72 million tons (-15.3% YoY; -31.5% QoQ). Demand weakened broadly across regions, with Java down -4.1% YoY and non-Java areas contracting sharply by -30.4% YoY. Kalimantan was the hardest hit, posting a -36.9% YoY decline (-19.2% QoQ), largely due to delays in the Nusantara Capital City (IKN) project. Meanwhile, bagged cement sales volume reached 9.44 million tons (-4.4% YoY ; -23.4% QoQ). The decline was more pronounced in Java (-8.0% YoY), while non-Java regions showed more resilience with only a -1.2% YoY drop. At the company level, SMGR’s volume decreased to 8.57 million tons (-6.6% YoY; -16.6% QoQ), whereas INTP demonstrated relatively stronger performance at 3.96 million tons (-6.0% YoY; -24.4% QoQ). Despite market headwinds, Indocement strengthened its market share to 30.7% in 3M25 (vs 29.5% in 2M25). Conversely, SMGR’s share slipped to 46.0% in 3M25 (vs 48.0% in 2M25), reflecting its sales volume contraction and a weakening bagged cement segment contribution (69.4% in 3M25 from 72.0% in 2M25), pressured by softer retail demand. Indocement also faced challenges, with volume down -5.9% YoY, driven by declines in both bagged (-3.2%) and bulk cement (-12.1%). We expect cement demand to recover as the low season ends and drier weather returns historically supporting increased construction activity. Accordingly, we anticipate stronger results in Q2 and Q3. However, government budget cuts constrain upside potential, with volume growth forecast at a modest 0.5%–1% for FY25F (Indust : 1%–2% in FY25F). Bulk cement’s contribution is projected to contract to ~28% in FY25F (vs 30.7% in FY24). We assign a Neutral rating to the cement sector given the headwinds from budget reductions and stagnant bagged cement demand, combined with a declining bulk cement contribution and lack of overall volume recovery momentum. However, we give a BUY recommendation on INTP with a target price of IDR 6,500, supported by an attractive EV/EBITDA valuation of 5.33x/4.70x for FY25E/FY26F. Downside Risks: 1) Larger or prolonged government infrastructure budget cuts, 2) Volatility in raw material and energy prices, 3) Intensified price competition affecting margins and market share. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research Disclaimer On Contact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: @phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: @phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a decrease in inflation to 1.60% YoY in May 2025 from 1.95% YoY in April 2025. The realized inflation was below the consensus forecast of 1.94% YoY. Core inflation also decreased to 2.40% YoY in May 2025 from 2.50% YoY in April 2025. Commodities contributing to decreased core inflation included jewelry, cooking oil, and ground coffee. Meanwhile, the volatile food group experienced deflation of -1.17% YoY in April 2025, primarily driven by price decreases in broiler chicken, shallots, red chilies, tomatoes, and chicken eggs in April 2025. The administered price group experienced inflation of 1.36% YoY, with significant contributions from drinking water tariffs, machine-made kretek cigarettes, and hand-rolled kretek cigarettes.

Indonesia's Trade Balance Surplus (NPI) decreased significantly to US$0.16 billion in April 2025 from US$4.33 billion (Figure 1). This decline was due to a significant decrease in the non-oil and gas surplus, from US$ 6.00 billion in March 2025 to US$ 1.51 billion in April 2025. The main contributors of decreased were animal and vegetable fats and oils, mineral and vegetable fuels, and iron and steel. Meanwhile, the oil and gas trade balance recorded a deficit of US$1.35 billion in April 2025, with crude oil and petroleum products as the main contributors. The NPI surplus has maintained its positive trend for 60 consecutive months since May 2020.

U.S. economic growth contracted by -0.20% QoQ in the second estimate for Q1 2025, down from 2.40% QoQ in Q4 2024, as released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and slightly better than market expectations of -0.3% QoQ contraction. It aligns with the slowdown in general inflation indicators, specifically the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which decreased to 2.10% year-over-year (YoY) in April 2025 from 2.30% YoY in March 2025. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in May 2025 is expected by market consensus to remain stable at 4.2%, unchanged for two consecutive months since March 2025 (Figure 1). U.S. GDP growth was driven by personal consumption expenditure, which fell to 0.8% QoQ from 2.7% QoQ in Q4 2024, representing 69.4% of total GDP (Figure 2). Personal consumption value increased by 1.2% QoQ to US$16.3 trillion, supported by increased spending on clothing and footwear. Other expenditures showed domestic investment growing at the highest rate of 24.4%QoQ. At the same time, government spending slowed by 0.7% QoQ due to President Donald Trump's policy of maintaining efficient government operations overseen by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Net exports showed the highest slowdown at 30.9% QoQ due to rising import values, as goods and services were not produced domestically.

PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT) -13 November 2024- Indonesia's economy has shown a solid recovery, with GDP growth observed across spending sectors. This reflects resilience and a balanced approach to economic recovery. Household consumption remains a primary driver of economic growth, contributing steadily to domestic demand and encouraging broader sectoral gains. Business conditions have improved, seen in positive consumer confidence and absolute sales indices, creating a supportive environment for local and international investments. Indicators such as decreasing poverty and unemployment rates and improvements in income distribution suggest gradual progress in the quality of life for many Indonesians. The government has set an optimistic economic growth target of 5.20% for 2025, with strong domestic consumption expected to play a central role in achieving this goal. Prabowo-Gibran administration intends to prioritize human resource development, emphasizing educational improvement, vocational training, and digital skills to strengthen workforce readiness. Bank Indonesia is expected to continue with flexible monetary policies, which may include easing measures, to help sustain economic growth amid global uncertainties. IHSG targeted 8698 in 2025: Considering the various opportunities and challenges faced in 2025. Sectoral Coverage: Banking, Cement, Metal & Mining, Food & Beverage, Poultry, Properties & Real estate, Telecommunication, and Tower. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

The majority of countries started to show an increase in economic growth in 2Q24, after experiencing a slowdown at the beginning of the year. Global monetary policy was less-aggressive than expected in 2024. Several central banks started easing their monetary policy in 3Q24 as the inflation rate flattened. Geopolitical conflicts continue in 2024. The conflict in the Middle East has expanded to involve countries other than Israel and Palestine. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue. Several commodity prices tend to stagnate in 2024 and There is still uncertainty risk from geopolitical conflict. Political conditions in global countries' election years were relatively stable. Economic activity's recovery has the potential to continue in 2025. This is driven by the easing of the monetary policy of several central banks, which could continue in 2025. The exchange rate has the potential to be more stable in 2025. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

**REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023** >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. **REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023** >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023.PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT) *"2024 Economic & Market Outlook: Searching for Opportunities in a Political Year."* -December 2023- --------------- *REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023* >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. *REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023* >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023. --------------- *OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. *OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id www.taspro.co.id --------------- **OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. **OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -