Global economic growth is expected to keep slowing amid high global uncertainty. This situation continues to weigh on trade, investment, and overall economic performance.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s import tariff policies have created uncertainty, though recent negotiations indicate potential progress. Efforts toward a U.S.–China trade deal, including partial tariff cuts and delayed export restrictions, are offset by new risks from stricter transshipment monitoring.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the global economy by automating production and addressing labor shortages. The integration of AI and robotics enhances industrial efficiency and supports productivity through adaptive labor and migration policies.

Global inflation pressures have eased except in the U.S., Europe, and the U.K., driven by import tariffs and strong demand. Several major central banks have started to cut interest rates, while others remain cautious to maintain stability.

Global fiscal conditions are becoming more fragile due to geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff policies, and high public debt. Expansionary fiscal policies and rising interest rates are increasing debt costs and limiting fiscal space.

Geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply chains, raising energy and food prices. However, global commodity prices in 2025 show mixed trends, influenced by weaker demand, supply disruptions, and climate change.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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