Wall Street melemah di Kamis (25/4). Pelaku pasar mengkhawatirkan inflasi yang lebih persisten di AS dalam beberapa bulan kedepan, sehingga memperkuat pandangan bahwa the Fed akan menahan sukubunga acuan lebih lama. AS catatkan realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 1.6% qoq di Q1-2024, lebih rendah dari perkiraan di 2.5% qoq. Harga brent menguat 0.92% ke US$83.57/barel, sementara harga crude menguat 1.12% ke US$89.01/barel di Kamis (25/4). IHSG berpeluang uji resistance 7200 di Jumat (26/4), secara teknikal. Akan tetapi, tekanan dari pelemahan mayoritas indeks global (25/4) diperkirakan memicu fluktuasi IHSG di atas pivot 7150 di Jumat (26/4). Pasar keuangan domestik nampaknya masih perlu waktu dalam merespon kebijakan moneter terbaru BI (24/4). Top picks (26/4) : ICBP, INDF, MYOR, ESSA dan HRUM.

Wall Street berakhir flat di Rabu (24/4). Wall Street dipengaruhi oleh kenaikan yield obligasi di AS, baik jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek di Rabu (24/4) jelang rilis data pertumbuhan ekonomi dan indikator inflasi di AS. Harga komoditas energi, khususnya minyak bumi diperkirakan cenderung normalisasi dalam beberapa waktu kedepan menyusul peningkatan inventori, khususnya di AS. IHSG berpeluang uji resistance 7200 di Kamis (25/4). RDG BI menaikan sukubunga acuan sebesar 25 bps ke 6.5% (24/4). Dampak jangka pendek terlihat dari penguatan nilai tukar Rupiah ke Rp16,150 (0.4%) hingga Rabu (24/4) sore. Kenaikan penyaluran kredit sebesar 12.40% yoy di Maret 2024 menjadi bekal yang baik dalam menghadapi kenaikan sukubunga acuan kali ini. Pelaku pasar nampaknya mulai memperkirakan potensi konsolidasi politik yang lebih "smooth" dalam 100 hari pertama kepemimpinan pasangan Prabowo-Gibran.

Mayoritas indeks di Wall Street menguat lebih dari 1% di Selasa (23/4). GE Aerospace, Spotify dan UPS membukukan realisasi kinerja keuangan 1Q24 yang lebih baik dari perkiraan. Yield obligasi Pemerintah AS turun menyusul penurunan indeks manufaktur (flash) di AS ke 49.9 di April 2024 dari 51.7 di Maret 2024. DAX (+1.55%) memimpin penguatan mayoritas indeks lain di Eropa (23/4). Penurunan indeks manufaktur di Eropa diyakini mendorong bank-bank sentral di Eropa untuk lebih cepat merealisasikan pemangkasan sukubunga acuan. Konsensus memperkirakan Bank Indonesia akan tetap mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level 6.00% meskipun dibayangi oleh pelemahan nilai tukar Rupiah dalam satu bulan terakhir. Pertumbuhan kredit Sektor Perbankan Indonesia diperkirakan berada di rentang target BI dalam kisaran 10%-12% yoy di Maret 2024. Top picks (24/4) : BBCA, ICBP, CPIN, CTRA, TOWR, TBIG, dan ISAT.

26 April 2024

25 April 2024

24 April 2024

Nasdaq menutup pekan lalu dengan pelemahan lebih dari 2% (19/4). Pelemahan kembali dipicu oleh aksi jual pada saham-saham technology. The Fed diyakini menahan sukubunga acuan hingga September 2024 seiring dengan peningkatan konflik geopolitik di Timur Tengah. Israel dilaporkan melakukan aksi balasan pada Jumat (19/4). Realisasi FDI di China mengalami pelemahan signifikan sejak Juni 2023 hingga Maret 2024 dan berada di level terendah dalam 30 tahun. Peluang downside pada IHSG masih terbuka di kisaran 7035 atau di MA200 pada Senin (22/4) atau di awal pekan ini. NPI Indonesia diperkirakan membaik di Maret 2024 sejalan dengan kenaikan harga komoditas dan realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi Tiongkok di atas ekspektasi di Q1-2024. Top picks : MDKA, ANTM, INCO, ELSA, JSMR, dan SIDO.

IHSG berpeluang kembali ke atas level psikologis 7300 dan potensi kembali ke area konsolidasi 7300-7380 di pekan ini. AS mencatatkan realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi di 3.4% qoq di Q4-2023 yang lebih baik dari perkiraan (3.2% qoq). Data ekonomi mixed dari Jepang juga berpeluang meredam capital outflow. Tingkat pengangguran Jepang naik ke 2.6% di Februari 2024 dari 2.4% di Januari 2024. Dari dalam negeri, pasar mengantisipasi data indeks manufaktur Maret 2023 dan inflasi Maret 2024. Inflasi diyakini masih berada di bawah pivot asumsi APBN 2024 di 3% yoy. Kondisi ini jadi modal baik jelang libur panjang Idul Fitri yang umumnya diikuti peningkatan konsumsi masyarakat.

Indeks-indeks Wall Street membukukan penguatan mingguan terbaik sejak Desember 2023. Komitmen the Fed untuk memangkas sukubunga acuan sebanyak 3 kali hingga 75 bps di 2024 direspon positif oleh pasar. U.S. Durable Goods Order diperkirakan pulih sebesar 1% mom di Februari 2024 setelah mengalami penurunan signifikan di Januari 2024 hingga -6.1% mom. Pasar diperkirakan mengantisipasi penjelasan BoJ (25/3) pasca kenaikan sukubunga acuan untuk pertama kalinya dalam 17 tahun. IHSG ditutup menguat di level 7350 pada perdagangan Jumat (22/3), yang menandai terjaganya momen bullish. IHSG berpeluang uji resistance ke 7400 di pekan ini.

22 April 2024

1 April 2024

25 Maret 2024

Code : MHKI Sector : Industrials Sub-Sector : Environmental & Facilities Services --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 28 Maret 2024 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 02 - 04 April 2024 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 04 April 2024 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 05 April 2024 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 08 April 2024 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 750,000,000 saham biasa dengan nilai nominal Rp50 setiap saham atau sebanyak-banyaknya 20.00% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp50 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp160 - Rp200 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp150,000,000,000. Penjamin Emisi : PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk (100%) --------------------------------------------- Laporan dalam format PDF dapat diunduh pada menu "Research - IPO Summary" di www.phintracosekuritas.com dan telegram @phintasofficial By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Code : AREA Sector : Technology Sub-Sector : IT Services & Consulting --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 21 Maret 2024 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 25 - 27 Maret 2024 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 27 Maret 2024 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 28 Maret 2024 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 01 April 2024 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 510,000,000 saham biasa dengan nilai nominal Rp75 setiap saham atau sebanyak-banyaknya 20.08% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp75 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp121 - Rp131 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp66,810,000,000 Penjamin Emisi : PT Panin Sekuritas Tbk (100%)

PT Satu Visi Putra Tbk Code : VISI Sector : Industrials Sub-Sector : Office Supplies --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 19 Februari 2024 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 21 - 27 Februari 2024 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 27 Februari 2024 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 28 Februari 2024 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 29 Februari 2024 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 615,000,000 saham biasa atas nama dengan nilai nominal Rp25 setiap saham atau sebanyak-banyaknya 20% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh dalam Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp25 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp110 - Rp120 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya Rp73,800,000,000 Penjamin Emisi : PT Surya Fajar Sekuritas

TLKM reported revenue growth of 3.71% YoY (1.45% QoQ) to IDR37.43 trillion in 1Q24, driven by an 11.3% YoY increase in the contribution of data, internet and IT services group to IDR22.15 trillion, despite ARPU declining 2.58% QoQ to IDR45.60k in 1Q24. The increase in revenue was followed by an increase in operating expenses by 5.30% YoY, mainly due to an increase in interconnection costs by 22.80% YoY, and employee costs which grew by 10.40% YoY due to the distribution of THR and marketing expenses increased by 4.10% YoY due to promotions ahead of Fasting and Lebaran. By 2024, Management expects revenue growth in the single-digit range while maintaining an EBITDA Margin of between 50-52% in 2024, supported by a surge in domestic connectivity demand. We forecast FY24E revenue to increase to IDR154.82 trillion, driven by revenue growth of 5%-10% and operating cost efficiency down 1%-5%, with net profit growing 8.02% YoY, ARPU stable in the range of ~Rp46-Rp47k. Using Discounted Free Cash Flow method with Required Return of 8.80% and Terminal Growth of 3.00% as terminal value. We assess that TLKM has an upside potential of 41.90% or IDR4,471 per share (Expected PBV at 2.5X and PE at 16.5x in FY24F), thus we give TLKM a BUY rating. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

In 4Q23, INCO achieved strong revenue growth of 5.5% QoQ to US$294mn, with FY23 revenue totaling US$1,232.3mn, up 4.5% YoY, driven by increased sales and production, despite a decline in Average Selling Price by -12.1% QoQ attributed to fluctuating LME nickel prices. INCO effectively controlled costs in 4Q23, reducing cash costs by 8.1% QoQ to US$8,929/tonne while achieving a significant ~16.7% YoY reduction in cash costs to US$17,329/tonne for FY23, driven by lower coal consumption and decreased Coal ASP. Short-term challenges from nickel prices are expected, but lower costs are poised to drive growth in FY24F, with steady production targets and anticipated decreases in cash costs primarily attributed to lower Fuels & Lubricants and Coal ASP. Adjusted forecasts for Nickel Matte ASP downwards reflect LME nickel price weaknesses, we anticipated 19.9% YoY decrease in revenue to US$170mn for FY24F, leading to a Net Profit Margin (NPM) of 17.28%. INCO anticipates limited near-term growth in FY24E, but remains positioned for strong future expansion driven by robust fundamentals, including the completion of key projects in 2026 focusing on Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) and Ferronickel (FeNi), aimed at meeting Indonesia's growing nickel industry downstream projects. Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 10.62% and Terminal Growth of 9.46%, we estimate INCO’s fair value at IDR4,548 (implying 16.9x / 1.05x expected P/E and P/BV). This outlook is fueled by INCO’s strong fundamentals, including its strong cost competitiveness and promising long-term growth projects in MHP and FeNi. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Contact Us : WA : 08119055611 IG : phintracosekuritas YT : Phintraco Sekuritas TELE : phintasofficial www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id

BBTN recorded a net profit of IDR 3.5 trillion, growing 15% yoy in FY23. Interest Income rose 9.2% yoy, although this was followed by an increase in Interest Expense of 36.4% yoy in FY23. Loans & financing have been on an uptrend for the last five years. BBTN's loans & financing grew 11.09% yoy to IDR 334 trillion in FY23. BBTN became the first state-owned bank to sell significant assets using an asset exchange scheme. The transaction amounting to IDR 861 billion was completed in FY23, with a portion of 7.9% of the 2023 NPL. CASA grew 20.4% yoy in FY23. BBTN recorded total Third Party Funds of IDR 349.9 trillion (+8.7% yoy) in FY23. BBTN will continue to develop high-yield loans in FY24, where in FY23, Home Equity Loan (KAR), People's Business Loan (KUR), and Soft Loan (KRING) succeeded in leading growth with a loan yield of 8.12% Using the Discounted Cash Flow method with a Required Return of 9.98% and Terminal Growth of 8.43%, we estimate BBTN's fair value at 1,807 (6.29x expected P/E). Considering BBTN's reasonable price and its relative valuation, which is below 0.74x its 5-year average P/B, we give BBTN a buy rating with a potential upside of 16.23%. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Geopolitical tensions raise the risk of cyberattacks, and the average cost per breach continues to rise, highlighting the ongoing need for robust cybersecurity measures for businesses. 51% of companies increase cybersecurity costs and investments due to the escalating cost of data breaches and cyberattacks. Indonesia faces a critical challenge in data protection; this vulnerability underscores the need for robust cybersecurity through IT Consultants & Services companies. Indonesia's tech sector receives support from the government: Law No. 27 of 2022 on Personal Data Protection and Circular Letter No. 29/SEOJK.03/2022 related to robust data security protocols for individuals and financial institutions. There is no sector rating yet, but we foresee Indonesia's tech sub-sector IT Consultant & Services' prosperous future, propelled by a potent combination of supportive regulations, surging demand for security solutions, and the transformative potential of emerging technologies.

**REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023** >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. **REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023** >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023.PHINTRACO SEKURITAS (AT) *"2024 Economic & Market Outlook: Searching for Opportunities in a Political Year."* -December 2023- --------------- *REVIEW : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2023* >The acceleration of economic activity recovery cannot be matched by an increase in supply. >Russia-Ukraine war worsening supply chain disruption, especially in energy commodities. >Surge of inflation, especially in the USA and Europe, affected by energy commodities prices. >Tightening of monetary policy by the majority to reduce inflationary pressures. >This policy increased concerns about inflation, which had a negative impact on capital market index movements. *REVIEW : Indonesian Economy and Capital Market in 2023* >Public mobility increased after lifting Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and implementing Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) in early 2023. >Indonesia's economy grew above 5% yoy for two consecutive quarters in 1H-2023. >Economic growth followed by improvement in quality of life index. >Export performance experienced a significant decline throughout 1H-2023 in line with the more profound than expected moderation in commodity prices. >Inflation is relatively controlled and stable within the 2023 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) assumed range. >BI tends to implement accommodative monetary policy throughout most of 2023. >The Indonesian banking sector is relatively solid, as indicated by optimizing the Loan to Funding Rate (LFR) ratio and the decline in Non-Performing Loans (NPL). >The Rupiah exchange rate tends to depreciate as capital outflow increases in Q3-2023.IHSG is more volatile in 2023 and is still stuck below 7000. >The transportation & logistics sector leads sector performance on the IHSG in 9M2023. --------------- *OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. *OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024* >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On - Visit our website : www.phintracosekuritas.com www.profits.co.id www.taspro.co.id --------------- **OUTLOOK : Global Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Global economic problems are expected to continue in 2024. >Supply disruption potential if the intensity of geopolitical conflicts increases. >Several central banks are expected to maintain tight policies in 2024. >Risky investment instruments are expected to remain disrupted amidst risk uncertainty. **OUTLOOK : Indonesian Economic & Capital Market in 2024** >Economic growth is estimated at 5.2% yoy in the 2024 APBN. >The quality of life index is expected to improve in 2024. >The budget condition has returned to stability to pre-pandemic. >The Rupiah exchange rate is expected to be more volatile in 2024. >The 2024 simultaneous national and local elections will have limited influence on investment realization in Indonesia. >A more active Monetary and Fiscal policy mix is ​​needed to reduce capital outflows, which trigger a descending of the Rupiah exchange rate. >IHSG is targeted at 7711 in 2024. --------------- By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

REVIEW : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Global 2022 >Pandemi COVID-19 relatif terkendali secara global, terutama di 2H-2022. >Akselerasi pemulihan aktivitas ekonomi tidak dapat diimbangi oleh peningkatan supply. >Perang Rusia-Ukraina memperparah supply chain disruption, terutama pada komoditas-komoditas energi. >Lonjakan inflasi, terutama di AS dan Eropa salah satunya dipicu kenaikan harga komoditas energi. >Pengetatan kebijakan moneter agresif oleh mayoritas bank sentral untuk meredam tekanan inflasi. >Kebijakan tersebut memicu kekhawatiran inflasi yang berdampak negatif pada pergerakan indeks pasar modal. REVIEW : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Indonesia 2022 >Pandemi COVID-19 relatif terkendali pasca gelombang kedua di awal 2022. >Kenaikan nilai ekspor, ditengah tingginya harga komoditas berdampak positif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. >Pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia masih mampu mempertahankan kebijakan moneter dan fiskal akomodatif, setidaknya hingga Q3-2022. >Kenaikan harga BBM subsidi di September 2022 memicu kenaikan inflasi. >Kenaikan inflasi dan capital outflow di Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) mendorong BI untuk mulai menaikkan sukubunga acuan di September 2022. >Capital inflow cukup besar terjadi di pasar modal Indonesia menopang penguatan IHSG secara ytd. --------------- OUTLOOK : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Global 2023 >Pemerataan vaksinasi COVID-19 akan menjadi kunci berakhirnya pandemi COVID-19. >Belum ada titik terang penyelesaian perang Rusia-Ukraina. >Krisis energi dan krisis pangan akan menjadi perhatian utama di 2023. >Inflasi diperkirakan masih tinggi, terutama di 1Q-2023. >Bank-bank sentral diperkirakan masih akan mempertahankan sukubunga acuan di level tinggi, setidaknya hingga terdapat sinyal kuat penurunan inflasi. >Sejumlah negara diperkirakan memasuki resesi, sementara mayoritas negara di Asia diperkirakan masih bisa mempertahankan pertumbuhan ekonomi di 2023. OUTLOOK : Ekonomi dan Pasar Modal Indonesia 2023 >Pemerintah RI memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 5.2% yoy di 2023. >Postur anggaran membaik dibanding periode pandemi (2020-2022). >Tekanan bagi BI terkait kebijakan moneter diperkirakan masih cukup besar di 2023, mulai dari kenaikan inflasi hingga pelemahan nilai tukar Rupiah. >Sektor Perbankan Indonesia (SPI) diperkirakan masih mempertahankan tren kinerja positif di 2023 meski dibayangi potensi peningkatan restrukturisasi utang. >Target IHSG untuk tahun 2023 di level 8205 (base). >IDX Industrials Focus : Telecommunication; Telecommunication Tower; Media & Entertainment; Food & Beverages and Household Products; Financials—Bank; Energy - Coal Producers; Plantations - CPO Producers; Infrastructures - Building Construction; Property and Real Estate; Construction - Related; Automotive; Heavy Machinery.