INTP posted a moderate topline performance in 2Q25, with revenue reaching Rp4.06 trillion (+2.05% QoQ; +0.37% YoY). Cumulatively, 1H25 revenue amounted to Rp8.03 trillion (Phintas: 43%; Cons: 43%; Avg-4Y: 44%), broadly in line with estimates and historical average. Soft performance was mainly driven by weak cement demand and prolonged rainfall in several regions, which restrained construction activity. Sales volume declined to 3.58mn tons (-9.69% QoQ; -11.10% YoY), but higher ASP of Rp1.06mn/ton (+14.95% QoQ; +15.14% YoY) helped support revenue from cement sales to Rp3.77 trillion (+3.81% QoQ; +2.36% YoY).

Profitability remained healthy, with net profit reaching Rp284 billion in 2Q25 (+34.84% QoQ; +44.44% YoY), lifting 1H25 net profit to Rp495 billion (+13.81% YoY) — broadly in line with estimates (Phintas: 25%; Cons: 26%; Avg-4Y: 25%). GPM improved to 30.13% (vs. 28.16% in 1Q25; 27.66% in 2Q24), mainly driven by lower raw material and fuel costs (-20.03% QoQ; -17.86% YoY and -6.05% QoQ; -3.10% YoY, respectively), supported by softer prices of key inputs such as limonite and coal. Margin expansion was also aided by rising contribution from Tier-1 cement products. 2Q25 EBITDA stood at Rp732 billion (+12.16% QoQ; +13.48% YoY), with EBITDA margin improving to 18.05% (vs. 16.42% in 1Q25).

Looking ahead, we anticipate a strong pickup in cement demand in 2H25F, in line with historical seasonality where INTP consistently records >30% HoH volume growth during 3Q–4Q (Figure 1). Key catalysts include drier weather conditions and front-loaded government fiscal spending that may accelerate infrastructure activity. Regionally, Banten remains a key contributor, supported by new plant developments and toll road projects. Meanwhile, Kalimantan lags due to slower IKN progress, with no new project initiation as per the latest management call.

We reiterate our BUY call on INTP with a TP of Rp6,500, implying 5.43x/4.79x 12M forward EV/EBITDA for FY25F/26F. We continue to expect solid volume recovery in 2H25, supported by seasonal trends and operating leverage. From a cost perspective, INTP’s push toward alternative fuels is likely to support margin improvement by lowering cost of revenue progressively. Downside Risks: 1) Persistent weakness in purchasing power, 2) delays or cuts in infrastructure project execution.

By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research
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